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Major League Soccer

Sporting KC - Minnesota United

07/23/2026, 12:30 AM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Sporting KC
1.2
Total xG
3.3
Minnesota United
2.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

1:2

10%

0:2

8%

1:3

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SKMU

Sporting KC

Attack weakness (0.64x league average)
-0.93
Defensive weakness (2.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.69
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.36
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.16
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.16
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap)
-0.11
Full strength squad available

Minnesota United

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.57
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.19
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap)
+0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.03
Nectarios Triantis on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.79
+0.79
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sporting KC with Jayden Reid: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Sporting KC: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Minnesota United with Nicolás Romero: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Minnesota United: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

21%

Draw

23%

Away Win

56%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

64%

Under 2.5

36%

Over 3.5

42%

Under 3.5

58%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

44%

Away or Draw

79%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • Clear defensive vulnerability: Sporting KC concedes an average of 2.6 goals per game this season and has kept zero clean sheets
  • Historical H2H dominance: Minnesota United won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Sporting KC, including a clear 3-0 victory in the most recent match
  • Massive recovery advantage: The visitors benefited from an exceptionally long break of 61 days since their last match compared to just 6 days for the hosts
Risk Factors
  • Vulnerable home defense: Sporting KC concedes an average of 1.75 goals per match at home
  • High-scoring home trend: Both teams scored in all of the last 5 matches at Children's Mercy Park, indicating a high risk of conceding for the visitors
  • Increased away conceding rate: Minnesota United concedes an average of 1.7 goals on the road compared to just 1.0 in home matches
Overview

Sporting KC host Minnesota United

Major League Soccer clash at Children's Mercy Park on July 23, 2026, 2:30 AM

Sporting KC is currently in 15th place with 11 points

Minnesota United is in 7th place with 22 points

The visitors enter the match as clear favorites with a predicted win probability of 55.6%

Form

Sporting KC has a form string of LWWLL

The hosts lost their last match 2-3 against St. Louis City

Minnesota United's form string is WDLLD

The visitors recently played out a 1-1 draw against Real Salt Lake

Sporting KC has already suffered 10 defeats this season

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Sporting KC averages 1.07 goals scored and 2.6 goals conceded per match

In home games, the hosts average 1.12 goals scored and 1.75 goals conceded

Minnesota United scores an average of 1.2 goals and concedes 1.47 goals per match

Sporting KC has failed to keep a single clean sheet this season

Minnesota United concedes an average of 1.7 goals in away matches

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sporting KC has 0 wins while Minnesota United has 4 wins

One encounter ended in a draw

The goal difference in these matches is 5-13 against Sporting KC

The last meeting ended in a clear 3-0 victory for Minnesota United on October 5, 2025

Key Players

Dejan Joveljić has scored 7 goals and provided 1 assist this season

Manu García has recorded 1 goal and 4 assists

Calvin Harris has registered 2 goals and 3 assists

Kelvin Yeboah is the top scorer of the visitors with 8 goals

Anthony Markanich Jr. has scored 4 goals and contributed 2 assists

Joaquín Pereyra stands out with 1 goal and 5 assists

Goalkeepers

Stefan Cleveland played 6 matches and is still waiting for a clean sheet

Drake Callender has made 15 appearances and kept 4 clean sheets

Cleveland has an average rating of 6.59 while Callender holds a rating of 6.82

Influences

At Children's Mercy Park, matches have averaged 3.6 goals over the last 5 games

Both teams scored in all of the last 5 home games

Minnesota United had a significantly longer break of 61 days since their last match compared to just 6 days for Sporting KC

The match will be played on natural grass

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