Match report →
Sporting KC – Minnesota United2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Sporting KC
1.23
Total xG
3.31
Minnesota United
2.08
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sporting KC | Minnesota United |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.64x league average) | −0.93 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.79 | +0.79 |
| Defensive weakness (2.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | +0.69 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.57 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.36 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Nectarios Triantis on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Clear defensive vulnerability: Sporting KC concedes an average of 2.6 goals per game this season and has kept zero clean sheets
- Historical H2H dominance: Minnesota United won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Sporting KC, including a clear 3-0 victory in the most recent match
- Massive recovery advantage: The visitors benefited from an exceptionally long break of 61 days since their last match compared to just 6 days for the hosts
Risks
- Vulnerable home defense: Sporting KC concedes an average of 1.75 goals per match at home
- High-scoring home trend: Both teams scored in all of the last 5 matches at Children's Mercy Park, indicating a high risk of conceding for the visitors
- Increased away conceding rate: Minnesota United concedes an average of 1.7 goals on the road compared to just 1.0 in home matches
All probabilities
Result
Sporting KC21%
Draw23%
Minnesota United56%
Double chance
Sporting KC or draw44%
Minnesota United or draw79%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
1:2
10%
0:2
8%
1:3
7%
2:2
6%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sporting KC with Jayden Reid: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Sporting KC: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Minnesota United with Nicolás Romero: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Minnesota United: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Sporting KC 4-2-3-1 · Minnesota United 3-4-3
Sporting KC
- 30 S. Cleveland
- 8 J. Davis
- 5 O. Blorian
- 28 W. Meyer
- 18 E. Karic
- 4 L. Johnsen
- 22 Z. Bassong
- 7 O. Capemba
- 6 M. García Alonso
- 11 C. Harris
- 9 D. Joveljić
Minnesota United
- 12 D. Callender
- 15 M. Boxall
- 23 M. Duggan
- 2 D. Padelford
- 3 K. Duncan
- 30 O. Géne
- 20 W. Trapp
- 13 A. Markanich
- 26 J. Pereyra
- 9 K. Yeboah
- 8 T. Chancalay
Substitutes
- 1 J. Pulskamp
- 2 I. James
- 15 J. Miller
- 16 J. Bartlett
- 17 S. Afrifa
- 20 K. Agyabeng
- 23 E. Bartlow
- 93 M. Suleymanov
- 99 J. Reid
- 1 A. Smir
- 6 P. Stroud
- 21 B. Hlongwane
- 24 J. Gressel
- 27 D. Taylor
- 29 M. Dieng
- 28 J. Díaz Beleño
- 33 K. Chandler
- 18 M. Gonzalez
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