Major League Soccer
Sporting KC - Minnesota United
07/23/2026, 12:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.2
3.3
2.1
1:1
11%1:2
10%0:2
8%1:3
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Sporting KC
Minnesota United
League
The Lab
- 1Sporting KC with Jayden Reid: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 2Sporting KC: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 3Minnesota United with Nicolás Romero: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 4Minnesota United: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
21%
Draw
23%
Away Win
56%
Goals
Over 1.5
85%
Under 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
64%
Under 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
42%
Under 3.5
58%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
44%
Away or Draw
79%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
63%
No
37%
Key Factors
- Clear defensive vulnerability: Sporting KC concedes an average of 2.6 goals per game this season and has kept zero clean sheets
- Historical H2H dominance: Minnesota United won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Sporting KC, including a clear 3-0 victory in the most recent match
- Massive recovery advantage: The visitors benefited from an exceptionally long break of 61 days since their last match compared to just 6 days for the hosts
Risk Factors
- Vulnerable home defense: Sporting KC concedes an average of 1.75 goals per match at home
- High-scoring home trend: Both teams scored in all of the last 5 matches at Children's Mercy Park, indicating a high risk of conceding for the visitors
- Increased away conceding rate: Minnesota United concedes an average of 1.7 goals on the road compared to just 1.0 in home matches
Overview
Sporting KC host Minnesota United
Major League Soccer clash at Children's Mercy Park on July 23, 2026, 2:30 AM
Sporting KC is currently in 15th place with 11 points
Minnesota United is in 7th place with 22 points
The visitors enter the match as clear favorites with a predicted win probability of 55.6%
Form
Sporting KC has a form string of LWWLL
The hosts lost their last match 2-3 against St. Louis City
Minnesota United's form string is WDLLD
The visitors recently played out a 1-1 draw against Real Salt Lake
Sporting KC has already suffered 10 defeats this season
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Sporting KC averages 1.07 goals scored and 2.6 goals conceded per match
In home games, the hosts average 1.12 goals scored and 1.75 goals conceded
Minnesota United scores an average of 1.2 goals and concedes 1.47 goals per match
Sporting KC has failed to keep a single clean sheet this season
Minnesota United concedes an average of 1.7 goals in away matches
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sporting KC has 0 wins while Minnesota United has 4 wins
One encounter ended in a draw
The goal difference in these matches is 5-13 against Sporting KC
The last meeting ended in a clear 3-0 victory for Minnesota United on October 5, 2025
Key Players
Dejan Joveljić has scored 7 goals and provided 1 assist this season
Manu García has recorded 1 goal and 4 assists
Calvin Harris has registered 2 goals and 3 assists
Kelvin Yeboah is the top scorer of the visitors with 8 goals
Anthony Markanich Jr. has scored 4 goals and contributed 2 assists
Joaquín Pereyra stands out with 1 goal and 5 assists
Goalkeepers
Stefan Cleveland played 6 matches and is still waiting for a clean sheet
Drake Callender has made 15 appearances and kept 4 clean sheets
Cleveland has an average rating of 6.59 while Callender holds a rating of 6.82
Influences
At Children's Mercy Park, matches have averaged 3.6 goals over the last 5 games
Both teams scored in all of the last 5 home games
Minnesota United had a significantly longer break of 61 days since their last match compared to just 6 days for Sporting KC
The match will be played on natural grass