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Major League Soccer

Colorado Rapids - San Diego

07/23/2026, 01:30 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Colorado Rapids
1.7
Total xG
3.1
San Diego
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
CRSD

Colorado Rapids

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.36
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.36
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.04
Darren Yapi on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Wayne Frederick not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Lucas Herrington on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 87% available)

San Diego

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.18
Rising form (2.6 vs 2 season average)
+0.18
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.01
David Vazquez on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Amahl Pellegrino not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Luca Bombino not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 88% available)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.79
+0.79
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Colorado Rapids with Wayne Frederick: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    San Diego with Pedro Soma: 2.6 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Colorado Rapids: 69% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    San Diego: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

26%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • Tactical advantage: San Diego averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Colorado's 3.0
  • Model prediction: Mathematical analysis shows Colorado Rapids as slight favorites with a 44% win probability
  • Scoring trend: San Diego averaged 2.6 goals recently, which is higher than their season average of 2.0
Risk Factors
  • San Diego's extreme away weakness, conceding an average of 4.0 goals per match on the road
  • Colorado missing key players: Only 87% of usual starting lineup strength available with Wayne Frederick out
  • San Diego missing key players: Only 89% of starting lineup strength available with Amahl Pellegrino out
Overview

Colorado Rapids host San Diego

Major League Soccer match on July 23, 2026, 3:30 AM

Clash at Dick's Sporting Goods Park

Colorado sits in 13th place with 16 points

San Diego occupies 11th place with 17 points

A tight mid-table battle between neighbors

Form

Colorado Rapids current form: LLWLL

4 defeats and only 1 victory recently

The away win at Minnesota United remains the only highlight

San Diego comes in with a form of: DDWDL

3 draws, 1 win, and 1 defeat

Their last match ended in a loss against Vancouver Whitecaps

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Colorado scores an average of 1.67 goals per game this season

At home, the Rapids concede only 1.0 goals per match on average

San Diego averages 2.0 goals scored per game

In away matches, San Diego concedes a high average of 4.0 goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches so far

Both teams have won 1 game each

Even goal record with 4 goals to 3 in favor of San Diego

The last encounter on May 15, 2025, ended in a 2-0 win for San Diego

Key Players

Rafael Navarro is Colorado's top forward with 8 goals and 3 assists

Paxten Aaronson contributed 4 goals and 3 assists in midfield

Kosi Thompson solidifies the defense and has scored twice

Marcus Ingvartsen is San Diego's top scorer with 11 goals in 15 games

Ander Dreyer shines with 6 goals and 7 assists in attack

Onni Valakari guides the midfield with 3 goals and 3 assists

Goalkeepers

Nicolas Hansen starts in goal for Colorado Rapids with a season rating of 7.0

San Diego fields CJ dos Santos, who has only made 2 appearances this season

Hansen has not kept a clean sheet in his matches so far

dos Santos has an average season rating of 6.62

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Dick's Sporting Goods Park

Stadium history reveals a high average of 3.8 goals per match

Both teams scored in 60% of the matches played at this venue

Colorado secures more stable results at home compared to away matches

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