Match report →
Colorado Rapids – San Diego1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Colorado Rapids
1.72
Total xG
3.11
San Diego
1.40
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Colorado Rapids | San Diego |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.79 | +0.79 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.36 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.36 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 2 season average) | +0.18 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.04 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.01 | |
| Darren Yapi on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Wayne Frederick not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Lucas Herrington on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 87% available) | ||
| David Vazquez on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Amahl Pellegrino not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Luca Bombino not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical advantage: San Diego averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Colorado's 3.0
- Model prediction: Mathematical analysis shows Colorado Rapids as slight favorites with a 44% win probability
- Scoring trend: San Diego averaged 2.6 goals recently, which is higher than their season average of 2.0
Risks
- San Diego's extreme away weakness, conceding an average of 4.0 goals per match on the road
- Colorado missing key players: Only 87% of usual starting lineup strength available with Wayne Frederick out
- San Diego missing key players: Only 89% of starting lineup strength available with Amahl Pellegrino out
All probabilities
Result
Colorado Rapids44%
Draw26%
San Diego30%
Double chance
Colorado Rapids or draw70%
San Diego or draw56%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Colorado Rapids with Wayne Frederick: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- San Diego with Pedro Soma: 2.6 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Colorado Rapids: 69% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- San Diego: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Colorado Rapids 4-3-3 · San Diego 4-2-3-1
Colorado Rapids
- 41 N. Defreitas Hansen
- 4 R. Cannon
- 6 R. Holding
- 5 L. Ntambue Kayumba
- 8 H. Ojediran
- 33 K. Thompson
- 7 D. Sealy
- 10 P. Aaronson
- 12 J. Atencio
- 93 G. Minoungou
- 9 R. Navarro Leal
San Diego
- 1 C. Dos Santos
- 33 O. Verhoeven
- 97 C. Mcvey
- 26 M. Duah
- 5 K. Sargeant
- 20 A. Godoy
- 6 J. Tverskov
- 10 A. Dreyer
- 8 O. Valakari
- 77 A. Mighten
- 7 M. Ingvartsen
Substitutes
- 2 K. Rosenberry
- 16 A. Harris
- 22 L. Herrington
- 24 N. Cobb
- 77 D. Yapi
- 31 A. Beaudry
- 32 D. Phillip
- 18 B. Jamison
- 15 A. Fadal
- 14 B. Zamblé
- 15 P. Soma
- 18 D. Ferree
- 25 I. Pilcher
- 19 D. Vazquez
- 9 L. Morgan
- 32 I. Murphy
- 2 W. Kumado
- 70 A. Alvarado Jr.
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