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Major League Soccer

Austin - Seattle Sounders

07/23/2026, 01:30 AM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Austin
1.2
Total xG
2.5
Seattle Sounders
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:0

10%

0:1

9%

1:2

8%

1:0

8%
What influences the xG?
AUSSS

Austin

Attack weakness (0.6x league average)
-1.06
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.46
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.11
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 6, 8 places gap)
-0.10
Christian Ramirez on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Jon Bell not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
27% of goal output missing (only 82% available)

Seattle Sounders

Attack weakness (0.71x league average)
-0.29
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.17
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 14, 8 places gap)
+0.05
Cristian RoldƔn not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Jordan Morris not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.79
+0.79
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Austin: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Seattle Sounders with Ɓlex RoldƔn: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Austin with Myrto Uzuni: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Austin: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Austin: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

30%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Seattle averaged 5.8 shots on target recently, compared to Austin's 3.8
  • Austin's home advantage: Conceding only 0.86 goals per game at their own stadium
  • Mathematical analysis gives Seattle Sounders a slight advantage with a 37% win probability
Risk Factors
  • Both Austin and Seattle averaged only 1.0 goal scored per match recently
  • Both teams are in a form crisis with 3 consecutive losses each
  • Major absences for Seattle: Cristian RoldĆ”n and Jordan Morris are missing
Overview

Austin (14th place, 14 points) host Seattle Sounders (6th place, 24 points)

Major League Soccer match at Q2 Stadium on July 23, 2026, 1:30 AM

Both teams urgently need points

Form

Austin's form is WDLLL with 1 win and 3 losses in the last 5 matches

Seattle Sounders have a form of DWLLL with 1 win and 3 losses

Both teams ended their last 3 matches with a loss

Statistics

Austin scores an average of 1.27 goals and concedes 2.07 goals per match

At home, their defense is stable, conceding only 0.86 goals on average

Seattle scores 1.25 goals away and concedes only 1.00 goal on average

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in total

Seattle Sounders with 2 wins, Austin with 1 win and 1 draw

The last match ended 2-1 for Austin on September 21, 2025

Key Players

Myrto Uzuni leads Austin with 5 season goals

Facundo Torres has contributed 1 goal and 5 assists

Albert RusnƔk shines for Seattle with 3 goals and 4 assists

Goalkeepers

Brad Stuver has an average rating of 7.27 and recorded 4 clean sheets

Andrew Thomas has a rating of 7.06 and kept 5 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on grass at Q2 Stadium

The venue has an average of 2.6 goals per game

Home advantage for Austin with a much better defensive record at home

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