Match report →
Austin – Seattle Sounders3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Austin
1.20
Total xG
2.50
Seattle Sounders
1.30
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Austin | Seattle Sounders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.6x league average) | −1.06 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.79 | +0.79 |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.46 | |
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.29 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.17 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 6, 8 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 14, 8 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Christian Ramirez on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jon Bell not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 82% available) | ||
| Cristian Roldán not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jordan Morris not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Seattle averaged 5.8 shots on target recently, compared to Austin's 3.8
- Austin's home advantage: Conceding only 0.86 goals per game at their own stadium
- Mathematical analysis gives Seattle Sounders a slight advantage with a 37% win probability
Risks
- Both Austin and Seattle averaged only 1.0 goal scored per match recently
- Both teams are in a form crisis with 3 consecutive losses each
- Major absences for Seattle: Cristian Roldán and Jordan Morris are missing
All probabilities
Result
Austin32%
Draw30%
Seattle Sounders37%
Double chance
Austin or draw63%
Seattle Sounders or draw68%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:0
10%
0:1
9%
1:2
8%
1:0
8%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Austin: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Seattle Sounders with Álex Roldán: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Austin with Myrto Uzuni: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Austin: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Austin: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Austin 3-4-3 · Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1
Austin
- 1 B. Stuver
- 4 B. Hines-Ike
- 5 O. Svatok
- 29 Guilherme Biro
- 30 J. Rosales Erazo
- 6 I. Sánchez Farrés
- 14 B. Sabovic
- 17 J. Gallagher
- 11 F. Torres Pérez
- 9 B. Vázquez Toledo
- 10 M. Uzuni
Seattle Sounders
- 26 A. Thomas
- 45 P. Kingston
- 39 S. Hawkins
- 25 J. Ragen
- 5 N. Tolo
- 37 S. Brunell
- 31 H. Dotson
- 9 J. Ferreira
- 11 A. Rusnák
- 14 P. Rothrock
- 19 D. Musovski
Substitutes
- 77 P. Płacheta
- 7 J. Nelson
- 12 D. Las
- 20 N. Dubersarsky
- 23 Ž. Kolmanič
- 35 M. Đorđević
- 38 E. Torres
- 21 C. Ramírez
- 33 O. Wolff
- 17 P. Arriola
- 24 S. Frei
- 28 Y. Gómez Andrade
- 35 A. Lopez
- 85 K. Kossa-Rienzi
- 90 S. Gomez
- 95 O. De Rosario
- 50 M. Anchor
- 53 G. Sandnes
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