Match report →
CF Montréal – Vancouver Whitecaps0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
CF Montréal
1.32
Total xG
3.21
Vancouver Whitecaps
1.90
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | CF Montréal | Vancouver Whitecaps |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −1.09 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.76 | +0.76 |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.31 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.23 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 1, 14 places gap) | −0.21 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 15, 14 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Noah Streit not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Efraín Morales not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Brian White on the bench (20 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Mathías Laborda on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Emmanuel Sabbi not in squad (4 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Andrés Cubas not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 57% of goal output missing (only 52% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Vancouver is 1st with 61 points from 33 matches, CF Montréal is 15th with 26 points from 33 matches
- Form: Vancouver won 3 of their last 5 matches, CF Montréal remained winless in their last 5 matches
Risks
- Home/Away: Vancouver scored 1.75 goals per game away in the league this season, compared to 2.59 at home
All probabilities
Result
CF Montréal25%
Draw25%
Vancouver Whitecaps50%
Double chance
CF Montréal or draw50%
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw75%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.32 : 1.90, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
0:2
7%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vancouver Whitecaps: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- CF Montréal: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- CF Montréal: 10 of 28 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- CF Montréal: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
Lineups
CF Montréal 4-2-3-1 · Vancouver Whitecaps 4-2-3-1
CF Montréal
- 41 S. Keita
- 27 D. Bugaj
- 5 B. Craig
- 4 B. Vera Ramírez
- 13 L. Petrasso
- 8 M. Longstaff
- 22 V. Loturi
- 18 H. Synchuk
- 29 O. Escobar
- 16 W. Carmona Torres
- 14 D. Ríos Calderón
Vancouver Whitecaps
- 1 Y. Takaoka
- 18 ?. Vidal
- 4 R. Veselinović
- 6 R. Priso-Mbongue
- 29 M. Gherasimencov
- 8 O. Larraz
- 23 A. Cvetković
- 7 C. Sabaly
- 25 R. Gauld
- 77 Y. Diaby
- 19 R. Elloumi
Substitutes
- 10 A. Sánchez Sánchez
- 7 D. Pereira Gil
- 3 B. Ceballos Jiménez
- 1 S. Breza
- 6 S. Piette
- 23 N. Streit
- 24 E. Morales Badillo
- 36 J. Nteziryayo
- 21 F. Herbers
- 70 R. Muati Modesto
- 13 T. Müller
- 24 B. White
- 28 T. Johnson
- 32 I. Boehmer
- 33 T. Blackmon
- 14 B. Caicedo Quiñonez
- 63 J. Selemani
- 15 S. Ramírez Maya
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