Match report →
Chicago Fire – Columbus Crew3 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Chicago Fire
1.75
Total xG
3.18
Columbus Crew
1.44
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Chicago Fire | Columbus Crew |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.76 | +0.76 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.32 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Jack Elliott on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| W. Abou Ali not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Chicago Fire is 4th in the league with 55 points from 33 games, Columbus Crew is 8th with 44 points
- Home/Away: Chicago Fire scores 1.88 goals per game at home in the league, Columbus Crew concedes 1.88 away
Risks
- Form: Columbus Crew won all of their last 5 games, while Chicago Fire recorded 2 wins in their last 5 games
- Head-to-head: Columbus Crew won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Chicago Fire, with 1 win for Chicago Fire
All probabilities
Result
Chicago Fire44%
Draw26%
Columbus Crew30%
Double chance
Chicago Fire or draw70%
Columbus Crew or draw56%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.75 : 1.44, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
3:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Chicago Fire: 41% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (9 of 22)
- Chicago Fire: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Columbus Crew with Mohamed Farsi starting: 2 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (17/9 games, last 30)
- Chicago Fire: 73% of all goals in the second half (16 of 22, last 12 games)
- Columbus Crew: 32% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (8 of 25)
- Columbus Crew: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Chicago Fire 4-2-3-1 · Columbus Crew 3-4-3
Chicago Fire
- 1 C. Brady
- 24 R. Dean
- 21 A. Hanche-Olsen
- 4 M. Mbokazi
- 32 N. Allen
- 42 D. D'Avilla
- 6 A. Salétros
- 11 P. Zinckernagel
- 7 M. Haile-Selassie
- 19 J. Bamba
- 9 R. Lewandowski
Columbus Crew
- 28 P. Schulte
- 31 S. Moreira
- 25 S. Zawadzki
- 18 M. Amundsen
- 23 M. Farsi
- 7 D. Chambost
- 17 S. Tidiany Bangoura
- 21 A. Zaroury
- 16 T. Habroune
- 33 G. Tapia Dubournais
- 8 S. Rodríguez Molina
Substitutes
- 10 A. Russo Franco
- 23 A. Mekvabishvili
- 2 L. Caetano Barroso
- 3 J. Elliott
- 12 P. Dithejane
- 35 S. Oregel Jr.
- 44 J. Cohen
- 15 A. Gutman
- 18 J. Gomez
- 3 E. Bailly
- 10 B. Méndez Portela
- 20 A. Tavares Gomes
- 1 N. Hagen Godoy
- 2 M. Herrera Mansilla
- 19 J. Thiaré
- 77 J. Martínez
- 26 L. Giaccone
- 11 B. Lennon
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