Match report →
St. Louis City – Austin3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
St. Louis City
2.07
Total xG
3.20
Austin
1.13
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | St. Louis City | Austin |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.81 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | −0.44 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | +0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Sang-bin Jeong on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Myrto Uzuni on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 26% of goal output missing (only 87% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Prediction Advantage: Mathematical analysis indicates a home win probability of 58% and 2.07 expected goals for St. Louis City
- Austin's Away Weakness: Austin concedes an average of 3.14 goals per away game, highlighting significant defensive vulnerability
- St. Louis City's Home Defense: St. Louis City demonstrates a solid home defense, conceding an average of only 0.88 goals per home match
Risks
- Austin has suffered consecutive losses in their last two games, indicating a dip in form
- St. Louis City averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games, which could indicate lower offensive efficiency
All probabilities
Result
St. Louis City58%
Draw23%
Austin19%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Double chance
St. Louis City or draw81%
Austin or draw42%
No draw77%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- St. Louis City: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
- Austin: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- St. Louis City with Brendan McSorley: 6.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Austin with Ilie Sánchez: 3.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- St. Louis City: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
St. Louis City 3-4-3 · Austin 4-1-4-1
St. Louis City
- 39 B. Lundt
- 21 D. Polvara
- 32 T. Baumgartl
- 27 F. Fol
- 14 T. Totland
- 8 C. Durkin
- 24 D. Edelman
- 20 R. Cardoso dos Santos
- 10 E. Löwen
- 11 S. Becher
- 17 M. Hartel
Austin
- 1 B. Stuver
- 3 M. Desler
- 5 O. Svatok
- 15 J. Bell
- 29 Guilherme Biro
- 8 D. Pereira Gil
- 11 F. Torres Pérez
- 30 J. Rosales Erazo
- 33 O. Wolff
- 17 J. Gallagher
- 21 C. Ramírez
Substitutes
- 5 L. MacNaughton
- 22 K. Hiebert
- 28 M. Perez
- 36 C. Teuchert
- 59 M. Joyner
- 80 B. McSorley
- 4 M. Fall
- 34 C. Welsh
- 7 J. Nelson
- 6 I. Sánchez Farrés
- 12 D. Las
- 19 C. Fodrey
- 20 N. Dubersarsky
- 23 Ž. Kolmanič
- 35 M. Đorđević
- 14 B. Sabovic
- 9 B. Vázquez Toledo
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