Major League Soccer
St. Louis City - Austin
05/23/2026, 06:45 PM
Expected Goals
2.1
3.2
1.1
1:1
11%2:1
10%2:0
9%3:1
7%3:0
6%What influences the xG?
St. Louis City
Austin
League
The Lab
- 1St. Louis City: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
- 2Austin: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 3St. Louis City with Brendan McSorley: 6.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Austin with Ilie SƔnchez: 3.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5St. Louis City: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
58%
Draw
23%
Away Win
19%
Goals
Over 1.5
84%
Under 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
62%
Under 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
40%
Under 3.5
60%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
81%
Away or Draw
42%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
60%
No
40%
Key Factors
- Prediction Advantage: Mathematical analysis indicates a home win probability of 58% and 2.07 expected goals for St. Louis City
- Austin's Away Weakness: Austin concedes an average of 3.14 goals per away game, highlighting significant defensive vulnerability
- St. Louis City's Home Defense: St. Louis City demonstrates a solid home defense, conceding an average of only 0.88 goals per home match
Risk Factors
- Austin has suffered consecutive losses in their last two games, indicating a dip in form
- St. Louis City averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games, which could indicate lower offensive efficiency
Overview
St. Louis City (14th place, 13 points) hosts Austin (13th place, 14 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on May 23, 2026, 8:45 PM. Both teams are in the lower half of the table, fighting to connect with the mid-table pack
Form
St. Louis City's form in the last five games is LLWWD, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, their last game ending in a draw. Austin's form is WWDLL, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses from their last five matches. Their last game was a loss, and they have suffered two consecutive losses (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
St. Louis City averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.54 goals conceded per game this season. Austin averages 1.36 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded per game. At home, St. Louis City scores 1.0 goals per game and concedes only 0.88 goals. Austin is defensively vulnerable away, conceding 3.14 goals per game while scoring 1.43 goals themselves. Both teams scored in 8 of St. Louis City's games and 9 of Austin's games. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 4 of St. Louis City's matches and 10 of Austin's matches
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, St. Louis City secured 2 wins, Austin also has 2 wins, and 1 match ended in a draw. The goal difference is even with 6 goals for St. Louis City and 6 goals for Austin. The last encounter on May 3, 2026, resulted in a 0:2 defeat for St. Louis City
Key Players
For St. Louis City, Marcel Hartel (3 goals, 1 assist, avg 7.65 rating) and Chris Durkin (2 goals, 0 assists, avg 6.98 rating) are key players. Simon Becher contributes with 1 goal and 3 assists (avg 6.74 rating). Marcel Hartel's form trend is rising with a delta of 0.27. For Austin, Facundo Torres (1 goal, 5 assists, avg 7.21 rating) and Christian Ramirez (4 goals, 1 assist, avg 6.86 rating) are notable. Mikkel Desler shows a rising form trend with a delta of 0.36
Goalkeepers
Ben Lundt is in goal for St. Louis City. St. Louis City has recorded 1 clean sheet this season. For Austin, Brad Stuver is the number one goalkeeper and has achieved 4 clean sheets
Influences
St. Louis City has scored an average of 1.0 goals and conceded 0.88 goals at home, indicating a solid home defense. Home strength could be an important factor in this match