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Major League Soccer

Houston Dynamo - Vancouver Whitecaps

05/17/2026, 12:30 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Houston Dynamo
1.1
Total xG
2.9
Vancouver Whitecaps
1.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

10%

0:2

9%

2:1

6%

1:3

6%
What influences the xG?
HDVW

Houston Dynamo

Attack weakness (0.51x league average)
-1.37
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.66
Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 1, 7 places gap)
-0.09
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.07
Full strength squad available

Vancouver Whitecaps

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.59
Attack strength (1.4x league average)
+0.55
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
-0.09
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 8, 7 places gap)
+0.06
Emmanuel Sabbi on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Cheikh Sabaly on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.9 vs 2.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.77
+0.77
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Houston Dynamo with Ondrej Lingr: 3.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Vancouver Whitecaps with Thomas Müller: 3.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1.2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Vancouver Whitecaps: 3 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)

  • 4
    Houston Dynamo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Vancouver Whitecaps: 38% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 16)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

23%

Draw

26%

Away Win

51%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

49%

Away or Draw

77%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Vancouver Whitecaps leads the league with 29 points and boasts the strongest offense and defense in the league (30 goals scored, 9 conceded)
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Vancouver Whitecaps with 51%
  • Vancouver Whitecaps is unbeaten in their last five games, while Houston Dynamo recorded two losses
Risk Factors
  • Both teams had only 3 days rest since their last match, which could indicate fatigue
  • Houston Dynamo's goal production is recently lower (1.2 goals on average) compared to their season average (1.4 goals)
  • Vancouver Whitecaps' goal production is recently lower (2.2 goals on average) compared to their season average (2.5 goals)
Overview

Houston Dynamo (8th place, 18 points) host Vancouver Whitecaps (1st place, 29 points) in Major League Soccer on May 17, 2026, 2:30 AM

The Whitecaps lead the league and aim to defend their top position

The Dynamo seek to climb from mid-table

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Houston Dynamo shows a form of WLWWL across all competitions

They recorded 3 wins and 2 losses in their last five matches

The last result was a loss

Vancouver Whitecaps is unbeaten with WWDDW in their last five games

The team achieved 3 wins and 2 draws

Their last match ended with a win

Statistics

Houston Dynamo scores an average of 1.42 goals per game this season and concedes 1.83 goals

They kept 3 clean sheets and both teams scored in 5 matches

In home games, they score an average of 1.4 goals and concede 1.2 goals

Vancouver Whitecaps is offensively strong with an average of 2.5 goals per game and a solid defense with 0.75 goals conceded

They kept 5 clean sheets and both teams scored in 6 matches

Away from home, the Whitecaps score an average of 2.25 goals and concede 1.25 goals

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, the record between both teams is even

Houston Dynamo and Vancouver Whitecaps each won 1 game, while 2 matches ended in a draw

Houston scored 6 goals, Vancouver 8 goals

The last encounter on August 18, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw

Recent duels showed no clear dominance from either team

Key Players

For Houston Dynamo, Guilherme (6 goals, 4 assists), Lawrence Ennali (3 goals, 2 assists) and Jack McGlynn (2 goals, 2 assists) are key players

Guilherme shows a declining form trend with a decrease in average rating of 0.81 points in the last 5 games

Jack McGlynn and Lawrence Ennali show a stable form curve

For Vancouver Whitecaps, Brian White (8 goals), Sebastian Berhalter (6 goals, 5 assists) and Mathías Laborda (3 goals, 3 assists) stand out

Sebastian Berhalter shows stable form, while Brian White and Mathías Laborda show a declining trend

Not nominated for Vancouver Whitecaps are Emmanuel Sabbi (2 goals, 2 assists) and Cheikh Sabaly (2 goals, 1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Jonathan Bond of Houston Dynamo recorded 3 clean sheets in 12 appearances

Yohei Takaoka of Vancouver Whitecaps kept 5 clean sheets in 12 appearances

Influences

Houston Dynamo scored an average of 1.4 goals in home games and conceded 1.2 goals

Vancouver Whitecaps scored an average of 2.25 goals in away games and conceded 1.25 goals

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