Match report →
Philadelphia Union – Charlotte2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Philadelphia Union
2.25
Total xG
3.57
Charlotte
1.31
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Philadelphia Union | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.44x league average) | +0.99 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.76 | +0.76 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match) | +0.42 | |
| Rising form (3.6 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.42 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.19 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Liel Abada on the bench (5 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Will Cleary on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.9 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Philadelphia Union with 5 wins in their last 5 matches, Charlotte with 2 wins
- Home/Away: Philadelphia Union concede 1 goal per match at home in the league, Charlotte concede 1.93 per match away
- Shots: Philadelphia Union average 7 shots on target per match in their last 5 matches, Charlotte 4.6 per match
Risks
- Rest days: Philadelphia Union with 2 days since their last match
- Head to head: Charlotte won 3 of the 5 previous meetings, Philadelphia Union 1
All probabilities
Result
Philadelphia Union58%
Draw22%
Charlotte20%
Double chance
Philadelphia Union or draw80%
Charlotte or draw42%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.548%
Under 3.552%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
3:1
7%
2:2
6%
1:2
5%
3:0
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Philadelphia Union: 9 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (90% win rate)
- Philadelphia Union: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Charlotte: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Philadelphia Union: 76% of all goals in the second half (28 of 37, last 12 games)
- Philadelphia Union: 35% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (13 of 37)
Lineups
Philadelphia Union 4-4-2 · Charlotte 4-2-3-1
Philadelphia Union
- 18 A. Blake
- 39 F. Westfield
- 44 N. Pierre
- 26 N. Harriel
- 27 K. Wagner
- 6 C. Sullivan
- 21 D. Jean Jacques
- 4 J. Lukić
- 19 I. Vassilev
- 9 B. Damiani
- 10 M. Iloski
Charlotte
- 1 K. Kahlina
- 14 N. Byrne
- 44 M. Agyemang
- 22 F. Kessler
- 23 D. Schnegg
- 8 A. Westwood
- 28 D. Diani
- 37 R. Aloko
- 16 P. Mas Jaume
- 10 A. Saint-Maximin
- 9 Idan Toklomati
Substitutes
- 5 J. Sery
- 11 A. Bedoya
- 14 J. Rafanello
- 23 E. Alladoh
- 28 A. Anello
- 76 A. Rick
- 16 B. Bender
- 51 M. Jakupovic
- 33 Q. Sullivan
- 17 L. de la Torre
- 21 T. Miller
- 3 T. Ream
- 4 A. Privett
- 11 L. Abada
- 13 B. Bronico
- 15 H. Toffolo
- 25 T. Smalls
- 35 W. Cleary
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