Match report →
LA Galaxy – Houston Dynamo1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
LA Galaxy
1.48
Total xG
2.66
Houston Dynamo
1.19
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | LA Galaxy | Houston Dynamo |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.79 | +0.79 |
| Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean | +0.45 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.34 | |
| Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Lucas Sanabria on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Pipeline Prediction: Mathematical analysis indicates a home win with 42% probability
- LA Galaxy's Home Strength: The team scores an average of 1.50 goals at home while conceding only 1.17 goals
- Houston Dynamo's Away Weakness: The visitors concede an average of 2.29 goals per away game
Risks
- Houston Dynamo concedes an average of 2.29 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
- C. Garcés Torres (Foot Injury), J. De Mello (Foot Injury), and R. Puig Martí (Cruciate Ligament Injury) are missing for LA Galaxy
All probabilities
Result
LA Galaxy42%
Draw29%
Houston Dynamo29%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Double chance
LA Galaxy or draw71%
Houston Dynamo or draw58%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Houston Dynamo with Ondrej Lingr: 3.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- LA Galaxy: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- Houston Dynamo: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- LA Galaxy: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Houston Dynamo: 72% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
LA Galaxy 4-2-3-1 · Houston Dynamo 4-1-4-1
LA Galaxy
- 12 J. Marcinkowski
- 2 M. Yamane
- 5 J. Glesnes
- 15 J. Haak
- 14 J. Nelson
- 22 E. Wynder
- 6 E. Cerrillo
- 11 G. Fortes Chaves
- 27 E. Thommy
- 28 J. Paintsil
- 18 M. Reus
Houston Dynamo
- 31 J. Bond
- 36 F. de Andrade Vieira
- 3 A. Cunha Capocasali Junior
- 34 A. Resch
- 11 L. Ennali
- 6 J. de Lima Junior
- 19 M. Bogusz
- 8 J. McGlynn
- 16 H. Herrera López
- 20 G. Vieira dos Santos
- 9 O. Lingr
Substitutes
- 1 N. Mićović
- 3 J. Aude
- 4 M. Yoshida
- 8 L. Sanabria Magolé
- 9 M. Nascimento de Paula
- 19 M. Cuevas
- 24 R. Ramos Jr.
- 26 H. Miller
- 49 D. Vanney
- 17 N. Markanich
- 10 E. Ponce Martínez
- 14 D. Holmes
- 18 D. Samassekou
- 21 F. Negri
- 26 B. Gillingham
- 28 E. Sviatchenko
- 30 A. Bouzat
- 24 I. Aliyu
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