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Major League Soccer

LA Galaxy - Houston Dynamo

05/24/2026, 02:30 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
LA Galaxy
1.5
Total xG
2.7
Houston Dynamo
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
LGHD

LA Galaxy

Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.45
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.03
Lucas Sanabria on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

Houston Dynamo

Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.34
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.12
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.05
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.79
+0.79
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Houston Dynamo with Ondrej Lingr: 3.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    LA Galaxy: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Houston Dynamo: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    LA Galaxy: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Houston Dynamo: 72% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

29%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: Mathematical analysis indicates a home win with 42% probability
  • LA Galaxy's Home Strength: The team scores an average of 1.50 goals at home while conceding only 1.17 goals
  • Houston Dynamo's Away Weakness: The visitors concede an average of 2.29 goals per away game
Risk Factors
  • Houston Dynamo concedes an average of 2.29 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
  • C. GarcĂ©s Torres (Foot Injury), J. De Mello (Foot Injury), and R. Puig MartĂ­ (Cruciate Ligament Injury) are missing for LA Galaxy
Overview

LA Galaxy (9th place, 19 points) host Houston Dynamo (8th place, 21 points) at Dignity Health Sports Park

Major League Soccer match on May 24, 2026, 04:30 AM

A mid-table clash where LA Galaxy aims to leverage its home strength

Form

LA Galaxy's recent form is WDWLW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)

Their last league win was away against Seattle Sounders with a 2-0 score

Houston Dynamo's form is LWWLW (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses)

Their last league win was at home against Vancouver Whitecaps with a 1-0 score

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

LA Galaxy averages 1.50 goals scored per game and 1.50 goals conceded per game this season

At home, LA Galaxy scores an average of 1.50 goals and concedes 1.17 goals

Houston Dynamo averages 1.38 goals scored per game and 1.69 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Houston Dynamo scores an average of 1.43 goals and concedes 2.29 goals

Both teams scored in 12 out of 14 LA Galaxy games and in 5 out of 13 Houston Dynamo games

More than 2.5 goals were scored in 10 out of 14 LA Galaxy games and in 6 out of 13 Houston Dynamo games

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, there has been 1 win for LA Galaxy, 1 win for Houston Dynamo, and 2 draws

The goal difference is even at 5:5

The last encounter ended in a 1:1 draw on September 7, 2025

Key Players

For LA Galaxy, Gabriel Pec (5 goals, 4 assists), Marco Reus (4 goals, 5 assists), and Joseph Paintsil (2 goals, 2 assists) are key players

Gabriel Pec shows a stable form trend with 4 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Marco Reus recorded 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games, also with a stable trend

Joseph Paintsil has scored 1 goal in the last 5 games, his form trend is slightly declining

For Houston Dynamo, Guilherme (7 goals, 4 assists), Lawrence Ennali (3 goals, 2 assists), and Jack McGlynn  (2 goals, 2 assists) are crucial

Guilherme scored 2 times in the last 5 games, his form trend is declining

Lawrence Ennali scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists in the last 5 games with a stable form trend

Jack McGlynn  has scored 2 goals in the last 5 games, his form trend is stable

Goalkeepers

LA Galaxy's goalkeeper, J. Marcinkowski, has an average rating of 7.02 this season

J. Marcinkowski kept 2 clean sheets in 10 season appearances

Houston Dynamo's goalkeeper, Jonathan Bond, has a season rating of 6.81

Jonathan Bond recorded 4 clean sheets in 13 season appearances

Influences

LA Galaxy scores an average of 1.50 goals at home and concedes 1.17 goals

Houston Dynamo concedes an average of 2.29 goals per away game

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 42% probability

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