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Major League Soccer

Minnesota United - Colorado Rapids

05/14/2026, 12:30 AM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Minnesota United
1.6
Total xG
2.7
Colorado Rapids
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
MUCR

Minnesota United

Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.44
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.28
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 11, 6 places gap)
+0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.04
TomĂĄs Chancalay on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
Nectarios Triantis on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Colorado Rapids

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.53
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.42
Declining form (0.8 vs 2 season average)
-0.38
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.12
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 5, 6 places gap)
-0.07
Darren Yapi on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Hamzat Ojediran not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Kosi Thompson on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Dante Sealy on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 84% available)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Colorado Rapids with Wayne Frederick: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Colorado Rapids: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Minnesota United: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Minnesota United with Mamadou Dieng: 6.5 goals/90 min. Without: 3.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

28%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Defensive Contrast: Minnesota United's strong home defense (Avg. 0.75 goals conceded) faces Colorado's vulnerable away defense (Avg. 3.25 goals conceded)
  • Form Disparity: Minnesota United's good form (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) contrasts with Colorado's losing streak (3 consecutive losses)
  • Tactical Strength: Minnesota United shows offensive strength with an average of 5.4 shots on target in their last 5 games, while Colorado Rapids is less direct with 2.6 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Colorado Rapids concedes an average of 3.25 goals per away game
  • Colorado Rapids averaged only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a draw with a probability of 28%
Overview

Minnesota United (5th place, 21 points) host Colorado Rapids (11th place, 13 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on May 14, 2026, 1:30 AM. Minnesota United aims to solidify its playoff position, while Colorado Rapids seeks to escape the lower league standings.

Form

Minnesota United shows stable form in the last 5 games with WWLWD, achieving 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Their last match ended in a 2-2 draw against Austin. Colorado Rapids is in a difficult phase with form LDLLL, meaning 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last 5 fixtures. Colorado has lost their last three games.

Statistics

Minnesota United averages 1.33 goals scored per game and concedes 1.5 goals per game for the season. At home, they are defensively strong, conceding an average of 0.75 goals per home game and keeping 3 clean sheets. Colorado Rapids averages 1.83 goals per game and concedes 1.67 goals per game. Away from home, the Rapids' defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 3.25 goals per away game and achieving only 1 clean sheet.

Head-to-Head

In 4 previous head-to-head encounters, the record between Minnesota United and Colorado Rapids is even. Each team has secured 1 win, while 2 matches ended in a draw. Minnesota United scored 8 goals, and Colorado Rapids scored 6. The last meeting on September 28, 2025, resulted in a 1-1 draw.

Key Players

For Minnesota United, Kelvin Yeboah with 7 seasonal goals, Anthony Markanich Jr. with 4 goals and 2 assists, and JoaquĂ­n Pereyra with 1 goal and 4 assists are key players. For Colorado Rapids, Rafael Navarro stands out with 7 seasonal goals and 3 assists, Paxten Aaronson with 3 goals and 1 assist, and Lucas Herrington with 1 goal and 1 assist.

Goalkeepers

Minnesota United's goalkeeper, Drake Callender, recorded 4 clean sheets this season, with 3 coming in home games. On the Colorado Rapids' side, goalkeeper Nicolas Hansen has achieved 2 clean sheets this season, with 1 in away matches.

Influences

Minnesota United benefits from a home advantage, scoring an average of 1.25 goals and conceding only 0.75 goals in home matches. Colorado Rapids appear more vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 3.25 goals there.

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