Match report →
Seattle Sounders – Real Salt Lake2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Seattle Sounders
1.44
Total xG
2.44
Real Salt Lake
1.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Seattle Sounders | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| Attack weakness (0.56x league average) | −0.64 | |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.57 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.26 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Paul Rothrock not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jordan Morris on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Dejan Joveljić on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 26% of goal output missing (only 89% available) | ||
| Juan Manuel Sanabria on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Saba Lobjanidze on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Aiden Hezarkhani on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form discrepancy: Seattle is unbeaten in five matches (five draws) while Real Salt Lake lost four of their last five games
- Tactical trend: Seattle is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) compared to their season average of 1.3
- Weak away defense: Real Salt Lake concedes 2.44 goals per away game on average and has not kept a clean sheet on the road
Risks
- Depleted lineup: Key offensive players Paul Rothrock, Jordan Morris, and Dejan Joveljić are missing from Seattle's starting lineup
- Artificial turf struggles: Seattle won only 2 of 10 home matches on artificial turf so far
- Visitors' goal drought: Real Salt Lake's goal production has stalled recently with just 0.6 goals per game compared to their 1.5 average
All probabilities
Result
Seattle Sounders46%
Draw30%
Real Salt Lake25%
Double chance
Seattle Sounders or draw75%
Real Salt Lake or draw54%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Salt Lake: dropped a lead in 5 of 5 games (12 points lost)
- Seattle Sounders: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Seattle Sounders: 10 of 23 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Seattle Sounders: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (5 of 11 total)
- Seattle Sounders with Cristian Roldán starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.7 (14/7 games, last 24)
- Real Salt Lake: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1 · Real Salt Lake 3-4-2-1
Seattle Sounders
- 26 A. Thomas
- 85 K. Kossa-Rienzi
- 16 A. Roldan
- 25 J. Ragen
- 5 N. Tolo
- 37 S. Brunell
- 7 C. Roldan
- 90 S. Gomez
- 11 A. Rusnák
- 17 P. Arriola
- 19 D. Musovski
Real Salt Lake
- 1 R. Cabral Barbosa
- 2 D. Yedlin
- 26 P. Quinton
- 3 K. Henry
- 11 D. Marczuk
- 6 S. Spierings
- 92 N. Caliskan
- 29 S. Junqua
- 34 L. Moisa
- 9 M. Guilavogui
- 22 S. Solans Ormo
Substitutes
- 8 C. Clark
- 24 S. Frei
- 28 Y. Gómez Andrade
- 31 H. Dotson
- 35 A. Lopez
- 13 J. Morris
- 45 P. Kingston
- 4 R. Sailor
- 39 S. Hawkins
- 18 T. Booth
- 25 C. Guske
- 13 J. Shokalook
- 31 M. Stajduhar
- 39 A. Hezarkhani
- 12 S. Lobzhanidze
- 70 L. Rodrigues dos Santos
- 76 L. O'Gara
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