Match report →
Philadelphia Union – Seattle Sounders1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Philadelphia Union
1.35
Total xG
2.51
Seattle Sounders
1.16
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Philadelphia Union | Seattle Sounders |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.80 | +0.80 |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.57 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.40 | |
| Defensive strength (2.2 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | +0.30 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.29 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.27 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.27 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 6, 9 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 15, 9 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.03 | |
| Ben Bender on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jesús Ferreira on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Jordan Morris not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Opposing form trends: Philadelphia currently scores more frequently (2.4) than their season average (1.5), while Seattle's goal production stalls at an average of 1.0
- Tactical approach: Philadelphia showed high efficiency in recent matches, averaging 6.8 shots on target with only 39% possession
- Squad limitations for the visitors: Seattle's key players Jesús Ferreira (2 goals, 4 assists) and Jordan Morris (1 goal, 2 assists) are not in the squad
Risks
- Recovery deficit: Seattle has even less recovery time with only 2 days since their last match compared to Philadelphia's 3 days
- Defensive vulnerability of the hosts: Philadelphia has conceded an average of 1.94 goals per match this season
- Defensive absences: The visitors are missing key defensive pillars with J. Ragen and A. Roldan out due to injury
All probabilities
Result
Philadelphia Union39%
Draw30%
Seattle Sounders30%
Double chance
Philadelphia Union or draw70%
Seattle Sounders or draw61%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
7%
1:2
7%
0:2
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Philadelphia Union with Olwethu Makhanya: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Seattle Sounders with Álex Roldán: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (4 of 8 games)
Lineups
Philadelphia Union 4-4-2 · Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1
Philadelphia Union
- 18 A. Blake
- 39 F. Westfield
- 44 N. Pierre
- 26 N. Harriel
- 27 K. Wagner
- 6 C. Sullivan
- 21 D. Jean Jacques
- 4 J. Lukić
- 19 I. Vassilev
- 10 M. Iloski
- 9 B. Damiani
Seattle Sounders
- 26 A. Thomas
- 85 K. Kossa-Rienzi
- 39 S. Hawkins
- 35 A. Lopez
- 5 N. Tolo
- 31 H. Dotson
- 37 S. Brunell
- 17 P. Arriola
- 11 A. Rusnák
- 14 P. Rothrock
- 95 O. De Rosario
Substitutes
- 5 J. Sery
- 2 G. Martínez Turner
- 8 J. Bueno Añez
- 11 A. Bedoya
- 23 E. Alladoh
- 28 A. Anello
- 76 A. Rick
- 16 B. Bender
- 33 Q. Sullivan
- 9 J. Ferreira
- 19 D. Musovski
- 24 S. Frei
- 28 Y. Gómez Andrade
- 90 S. Gomez
- 50 M. Anchor
- 45 P. Kingston
- 53 G. Sandnes
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →