šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø

Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Union - Seattle Sounders

07/25/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Philadelphia Union
1.3
Total xG
2.5
Seattle Sounders
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

0:2

5%
What influences the xG?
PUSS

Philadelphia Union

Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.40
Defensive strength (2.2 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.30
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.27
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.27
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 6, 9 places gap)
-0.13
Ben Bender on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Seattle Sounders

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.57
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.29
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 15, 9 places gap)
+0.05
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.03
JesĆŗs Ferreira on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
Jordan Morris not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.80
+0.80
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Philadelphia Union with Olwethu Makhanya: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Seattle Sounders with Ɓlex RoldƔn: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (4 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

30%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Opposing form trends: Philadelphia currently scores more frequently (2.4) than their season average (1.5), while Seattle's goal production stalls at an average of 1.0
  • Tactical approach: Philadelphia showed high efficiency in recent matches, averaging 6.8 shots on target with only 39% possession
  • Squad limitations for the visitors: Seattle's key players JesĆŗs Ferreira (2 goals, 4 assists) and Jordan Morris (1 goal, 2 assists) are not in the squad
Risk Factors
  • Recovery deficit: Seattle has even less recovery time with only 2 days since their last match compared to Philadelphia's 3 days
  • Defensive vulnerability of the hosts: Philadelphia has conceded an average of 1.94 goals per match this season
  • Defensive absences: The visitors are missing key defensive pillars with J. Ragen and A. Roldan out due to injury
Overview

Philadelphia Union (15th place, 10 points) host Seattle Sounders (6th place, 24 points) at Subaru Park

MLS match on July 25, 2026, 11:30 PM

The home team aims to climb out of the bottom of the table

Home win probability is calculated at 39%

Form

Philadelphia Union shows a LLDLW form trend with a win in their last match

Seattle Sounders enter with a WLLLL form trend having lost their last four matches

The hosts recorded 1 win and 3 losses in their last 5 games

Seattle also registered 1 win and 4 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Philadelphia scores avg. 1.31 goals and concedes avg. 1.94 goals per match

Seattle stands at avg. 1.27 goals scored and avg. 1.27 goals conceded

Philadelphia's home record shows avg. 1.2 goals scored and avg. 1.4 goals conceded

Seattle concedes an average of 1.4 goals in away matches

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match so far

Seattle Sounders won that away match 3-2 on April 30, 2024

The historical goal difference stands at 2-3 in favor of Seattle

Key Players

Milan Iloski scored 8 goals this season with a 7.27 rating

Frankie Westfield has provided 3 assists this season

Cavan Sullivan scored once in 14 appearances

Albert RusnƔk recorded 3 goals and 4 assists

Paul Rothrock leads his team with 5 goals

Osaze De Rosario scored 2 goals in 13 appearances

Goalkeepers

Andre Blake has kept 2 clean sheets for Philadelphia

Andrew Thomas has recorded 5 clean sheets for Seattle

Influences

Subaru Park averages 1.8 goals per game

The match will be played on grass

Philadelphia has only 3 days since their last match, while Seattle has only 2 days

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.