Match report →
New York City – Toronto1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
New York City
1.53
Total xG
2.69
Toronto
1.16
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | New York City | Toronto |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.73 | +0.73 |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.66 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.28 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.25 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 5, 7 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 12, 7 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.04 | |
| Emilio Aristizábal on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Alonso Coello on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Derrick Etienne Jr. on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Defensive vulnerability: Toronto concede an average of 3.25 goals per away game, while New York City score 1.83 goals at home
- Historic dominance: New York City won all four previous head-to-head matches against Toronto
- Form contrast: New York City are in stable form (WDLWW) whereas Toronto remain winless in five games (LLDDL)
Risks
- Massive injury list: Ten New York City players are out with leg injuries, including key contributors like M. Moralez and K. Alexander Parks
- Goalkeeper factor: Despite Toronto's away issues, Luka Gavran has recorded 3 away clean sheets this season
- Low attacking output: New York City averaged only 3.6 shots on target per game in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
New York City44%
Draw29%
Toronto27%
Double chance
New York City or draw73%
Toronto or draw56%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- New York City with Jonathan Shore: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Toronto with Raheem Edwards: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Emilio Aristizábal: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 8 games)
- Toronto: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- New York City: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
New York City 4-1-4-1 · Toronto 4-2-3-1
New York City
- 49 F. Matthew
- 24 T. Gray
- 13 T. Martins Bueno
- 6 J. Sands
- 2 N. Cavallo
- 7 N. Fernández Mercau
- 32 J. Shore
- 8 A. Perea Castañeda
- 26 A. Ojeda
- 11 T. Bacelar Martins
- 9 B. Traore
Toronto
- 1 L. Gavran
- 19 K. Franklin
- 25 W. Zimmerman
- 38 J. Gilman
- 22 R. Laryea
- 21 J. Osorio
- 6 N. Dorsch
- 10 D. Mihailovic
- 7 T. Corbeanu
- 9 J. Sargent
- 20 D. Salloi
Substitutes
- 35 M. Ilenčič
- 17 H. Wolf
- 29 M. Carrizo Ballesteros
- 30 T. Romero Keubler
- 99 S. Garfield-Reid
- 27 C. Flax
- 23 M. Murray
- 88 M. Jones
- 15 K. Pierre Jr.
- 78 M. Henry
- 11 D. Etienne Jr.
- 14 A. Coello Camarero
- 17 E. Aristizábal Chavarriaga
- 23 W. Yarbrough Story
- 44 R. Edwards
- 99 J. Vilsaint
- 13 B. Kuscevic Jaramillo
- 29 D. Kerr
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