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Major League Soccer

New York City - Toronto

07/31/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
New York City
1.5
Total xG
2.7
Toronto
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
NYCTOR

New York City

Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.66
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.25
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 12, 7 places gap)
+0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.05

Toronto

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.28
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.16
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 5, 7 places gap)
-0.09
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.04
Emilio Aristizábal on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Alonso Coello on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Derrick Etienne Jr. on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.73
+0.73
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    New York City with Jonathan Shore: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Toronto with Raheem Edwards: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Emilio Aristizábal: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Toronto: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    New York City: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

29%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability: Toronto concede an average of 3.25 goals per away game, while New York City score 1.83 goals at home
  • Historic dominance: New York City won all four previous head-to-head matches against Toronto
  • Form contrast: New York City are in stable form (WDLWW) whereas Toronto remain winless in five games (LLDDL)
Risk Factors
  • Massive injury list: Ten New York City players are out with leg injuries, including key contributors like M. Moralez and K. Alexander Parks
  • Goalkeeper factor: Despite Toronto's away issues, Luka Gavran has recorded 3 away clean sheets this season
  • Low attacking output: New York City averaged only 3.6 shots on target per game in recent matches
Overview

New York City host Toronto at Yankee Stadium

Major League Soccer match on July 31, 2026, 11:30 PM

New York City occupy 5th place with 25 points

Toronto sit in 12th place with 16 points

Form

New York City show stable form with a WDLWW record

Toronto struggle with an LLDDL trend and are winless in five games

New York City recently secured two consecutive wins

Toronto suffered a defeat against DC United in their last match

Statistics

New York City score an average of 1.76 goals and concede 1.35 goals per game

At home they average 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded

Toronto average 1.35 goals scored and 1.82 goals conceded overall

On the road Toronto concede an extremely high average of 3.25 goals per match

Head-to-Head

Four head-to-head matches took place in recent years

New York City won all four encounters

The overall goal difference stands at 9:4 in favor of the hosts

The last meeting ended in a 3:1 victory for New York City on July 3, 2025

Key Players

Nicolás Fernández Mercau recorded 12 goals and 3 assists in 17 appearances

Agustín Ojeda has 5 goals and 4 assists from 17 matches

Talles Magno contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in 12 appearances

Dániel Sallói is Toronto's main threat with 4 goals and 3 assists

Josh Sargent scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist in 10 matches

Kobe Franklin added 2 goals and 2 assists as a defender

Goalkeepers

Matt Freese has an average rating of 6.91 in 17 appearances with 3 clean sheets

Luka Gavran played 17 games with an average of 6.69 and 3 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Yankee Stadium

Historically matches at this venue average a high 4.8 goals per game

New York City's strong home record contrasts with Toronto's severe away weakness

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