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Major League Soccer

Los Angeles FC - Real Salt Lake

07/23/2026, 02:30 AM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Los Angeles FC
1.5
Total xG
2.7
Real Salt Lake
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
LAFRSL

Los Angeles FC

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.71
Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.66
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.27
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.10
David MartĆ­nez on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists)
Timothy Tillman not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 95% available)

Real Salt Lake

Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.34
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.02
11% of goal output missing (only 76% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.81
+0.81
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Los Angeles FC with Ryan Hollingshead: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Real Salt Lake: 75% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Real Salt Lake with Zach Booth: 2.4 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Los Angeles FC: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Los Angeles FC: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

29%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Visitor's defensive weakness: Real Salt Lake concedes an average of 2.75 goals away from home
  • Model prediction: The mathematical algorithm calculates a 74% probability for a home win or draw
  • Offensive potential: Both teams averaged over 5 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Reduced offensive power for Real Salt Lake with only 77% of available goal production
  • Attacking threat: Real Salt Lake averages a strong 1.86 goals scored per game
Overview

Los Angeles FC (3th place, 27 points) host Real Salt Lake (4th place, 26 points) at the BMO Stadium

Major League Soccer match on July 23, 2026, 4:30 AM

A direct duel in the upper third of the table with only one point difference

Form

Los Angeles FC shows the form LLLWW with 2 wins and 3 losses

Real Salt Lake travels with the form WLWWD, consisting of 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Los Angeles FC scores an average of 1.69 goals and concedes 1.06 goals

Real Salt Lake averages 1.86 goals scored but concedes an average of 2.75 goals away

Los Angeles FC's home record stands at 1.67 goals scored and only 0.89 conceded per game

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches

Los Angeles FC recorded 2 wins, while Real Salt Lake won once

The last encounter ended 4:1 for Los Angeles FC

Key Players

Denis Bouanga shines with 7 season goals and a rating of 7.37

Heung-min Son has already contributed 8 assists this season

Diego Luna impresses for the visitors with a rating of 7.5

Goalkeepers

Hugo Lloris starts in goal for the hosts and recorded 10 clean sheets

Rafael Cabral guards the net for Real Salt Lake and recorded 2 clean sheets so far

Influences

The match is played at the BMO Stadium on grass

The home team achieved 6 of its 10 clean sheets in their own stadium

Real Salt Lake is still waiting for their first clean sheet away from home

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