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Los Angeles FC – Real Salt Lake3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Los Angeles FC
1.54
Total xG
2.66
Real Salt Lake
1.12
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Los Angeles FC | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.81 | +0.81 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.71 | |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.66 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.34 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.27 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| David Martínez on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Timothy Tillman not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 95% available) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Visitor's defensive weakness: Real Salt Lake concedes an average of 2.75 goals away from home
- Model prediction: The mathematical algorithm calculates a 74% probability for a home win or draw
- Offensive potential: Both teams averaged over 5 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Reduced offensive power for Real Salt Lake with only 77% of available goal production
- Attacking threat: Real Salt Lake averages a strong 1.86 goals scored per game
All probabilities
Result
Los Angeles FC45%
Draw29%
Real Salt Lake26%
Double chance
Los Angeles FC or draw74%
Real Salt Lake or draw55%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Los Angeles FC with Ryan Hollingshead: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Real Salt Lake: 75% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Real Salt Lake with Zach Booth: 2.4 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Los Angeles FC: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Los Angeles FC: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Los Angeles FC 4-3-3 · Real Salt Lake 3-4-2-1
Los Angeles FC
- 1 H. Lloris
- 24 R. Hollingshead
- 5 R. Porteous
- 91 Nkosi Tafari
- 23 Y. Cheberko
- 66 M. Choiniere
- 4 E. Segura Martínez
- 8 M. Delgado
- 18 J. Shaffelburg
- 7 H. Son
- 99 D. Bouanga
Real Salt Lake
- 1 R. Cabral Barbosa
- 2 D. Yedlin
- 26 P. Quinton
- 4 L. Engel
- 72 Z. Gozo
- 6 S. Spierings
- 92 N. Caliskan
- 8 J. Sanabria Magole
- 10 D. Luna
- 9 M. Guilavogui
- 22 S. Solans Ormo
Substitutes
- 12 T. Hasal
- 19 T. Boyd
- 21 R. Raposo
- 30 D. Martínez Morales
- 45 K. Nielsen
- 22 J. Terry
- 17 J. Ebobisse
- 33 A. Long
- 40 S. Nava
- 23 C. Booth
- 17 V. Olatunji
- 7 P. Ruíz
- 27 G. Dillon
- 29 S. Junqua
- 31 M. Stajduhar
- 98 A. Katranis
- 12 S. Lobzhanidze
- 21 J. Arias
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