Match report →
New England – Houston Dynamo0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
New England
1.27
Total xG
2.37
Houston Dynamo
1.10
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | New England | Houston Dynamo |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.99 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.72 | +0.72 |
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.40 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Strong home record on artificial turf: New England secured 7 wins in 10 matches on this surface
- Defensive home strength vs away vulnerability: New England concedes just 0.62 goals at home on average, while Houston concedes 1.89 away
- Houston's attacking threat: The visitors averaged 5.0 shots on target per match in recent games
Risks
- Vulnerable defense on the road: Houston Dynamo concedes an average of 1.89 goals in away matches
- Unfamiliar surface: Houston Dynamo has no performance data on artificial turf this season
- Head-to-head history: The last meeting in October 2024 ended in a 2-1 victory for Houston Dynamo
All probabilities
Result
New England38%
Draw31%
Houston Dynamo30%
Double chance
New England or draw70%
Houston Dynamo or draw62%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Houston Dynamo: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- New England with Luca Langoni: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Houston Dynamo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- New England: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
New England 4-3-3 · Houston Dynamo 4-3-3
New England
- 30 M. Turner
- 8 M. Polster
- 22 E. Kohler
- 2 M. Fofana
- 23 W. Sands
- 21 B. Raines
- 10 C. Gil de Pareja Vicent
- 80 A. Yusuf
- 25 P. Miller
- 99 D. Turgeman
- 17 M. Zambrano-Delgado
Houston Dynamo
- 31 J. Bond
- 36 F. de Andrade Vieira
- 5 L. Halter
- 34 A. Resch
- 11 L. Ennali
- 6 J. de Lima Junior
- 16 H. Herrera López
- 19 M. Bogusz
- 8 J. McGlynn
- 20 G. Vieira dos Santos
- 10 E. Ponce Martínez
Substitutes
- 11 J. Harrison
- 4 T. Beason
- 7 G. Yow
- 14 J. Yueill
- 33 D. Parisian
- 38 E. Klein
- 15 C. Baker
- 77 D. Fagúndez Pepe
- 27 W. Harris
- 23 D. McGuire
- 9 O. Lingr
- 14 D. Holmes
- 18 D. Samassekou
- 21 F. Negri
- 26 B. Gillingham
- 28 E. Sviatchenko
- 30 A. Bouzat
- 24 I. Aliyu
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