Match report ā
San Diego ā Houston Dynamo3 : 3
Why the model thinks so
San Diego
1.68
Total xG
2.88
Houston Dynamo
1.20
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | San Diego | Houston Dynamo |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +1.01 | +1.01 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 5, 7 places gap) | ā0.13 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match) | ā0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 12, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | ā0.03 | |
| Marcus Ingvartsen on the bench (12 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| AnĆbal Godoy on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Ibrahim Aliyu not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- The model projects a 47% chance for a home win with 1.68 expected goals for San Diego
- Anders Dreyer (11 goals, 12 assists) and Guilherme (14 goals, 6 assists) lead the attacking stats
- San Diego averaged 57.2% possession and 4.8 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- San Diego conceded an average of 3.4 goals per match in recent games
- Houston Dynamo averaged only 1.2 goals scored per match in recent games
All probabilities
Result
San Diego47%
Draw27%
Houston Dynamo26%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Double chance
San Diego or draw74%
Houston Dynamo or draw53%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
3:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Houston Dynamo: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
Lineups
San Diego 4-3-3 Ā· Houston Dynamo 4-2-3-1
San Diego
- 1 C. Dos Santos
- 3 D. ĆĆ³rĀhallsĀson
- 97 C. Mcvey
- 26 M. Duah
- 5 K. Sargeant
- 70 A. Alvarado Jr.
- 6 J. Tverskov
- 8 O. Valakari
- 10 A. Dreyer
- 94 C. Bakambu
- 99 M. Achouri
Houston Dynamo
- 31 J. Bond
- 11 L. Ennali
- 3 A. Cunha Capocasali Junior
- 5 L. Halter
- 21 F. Negri
- 6 J. de Lima Junior
- 16 H. Herrera LĆ³pez
- 19 M. Bogusz
- 30 A. Bouzat
- 20 G. Vieira dos Santos
- 9 L. Foster
Substitutes
- 12 G. Cordeiro Pirani
- 7 M. Ingvartsen
- 13 P. Sisniega Fink
- 14 B. ZamblƩ
- 20 A. Godoy
- 25 I. Pilcher
- 33 O. Verhoeven
- 90 A. Pellegrino
- 36 D. Mimbang Nyangono
- 17 N. Markanich
- 4 M. Saracchi Pintos
- 23 D. McGuire
- 14 D. Holmes
- 18 D. Samassekou
- 22 M. Arana Ibarra
- 26 B. Gillingham
- 34 A. Resch
- 24 I. Aliyu
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