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Major League Soccer

Dallas - Minnesota United

04/23/2026, 12:30 AM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Dallas
1.8
Total xG
3.1
Minnesota United
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
DALMU

Dallas

Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.12
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.11
Logan Farrington on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 87% available)

Minnesota United

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.07
Attack strength (1.23x league average)
+0.06
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.00
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Dallas: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 2
    Dallas with Nolan Norris: 3.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Minnesota United with Bongokuhle Hlongwane: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 3.6 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Dallas: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Dallas: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (4 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

26%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis favors Dallas with a 47% home win probability
  • Home Strength vs. Away Weakness: Dallas averaged 2.17 goals scored at home, while Minnesota United conceded an average of 2.17 goals away
  • Form Trend: Dallas is unbeaten in 5 games across all competitions (2 wins, 3 draws)
Risk Factors
  • Minnesota United concede an average of 2.17 goals per away game
  • Petar Musa (Dallas) shows a slightly declining form trend (-0.44 in rating)
Overview

Dallas (7th place, 13 points) host Minnesota United (6th place, 14 points) in Major League Soccer

The match takes place on April 23, 2026, 2:30 AM

Both teams are in the mid-table, vying for a better position

Form

Dallas' current form (DWWDD) shows 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses across all competitions

Minnesota United (LDWWW) has 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Dallas recently drew 2-2 at home against LA Galaxy and 1-1 against St. Louis City

Minnesota United recently won 2-0 at home against Portland Timbers and 2-1 away against San Diego

Statistics

Dallas has scored an average of 2.13 goals per game this season and conceded 1.5 goals

At home, they scored 2.17 and conceded 1.83 goals per home game

Minnesota United averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.63 goals conceded per match

Away from home, Minnesota United scored 1.17 goals and conceded 2.17 goals on average

Dallas kept 2 clean sheets and had 5 games where both teams scored

Minnesota United kept 3 clean sheets and had 4 games where both teams scored

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, both Dallas and Minnesota United have 1 win each

Two matches ended in a draw

Dallas scored a total of 7 goals, Minnesota United scored 6 goals

The last encounter on July 5, 2025, saw Minnesota United win 2-1 away

Key Players

For Dallas, Petar Musa is a key player with 9 goals and 1 assist in 8 games, though his form is slightly declining

Osaze Urhoghide contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in 7 games, also showing a declining form trend

JoaquĂ­n Valiente provided 2 assists in 7 appearances and shows stable form

For Minnesota United, Kelvin Yeboah is the top scorer with 5 goals in 8 games

TomĂĄs Chancalay delivered 1 goal and 4 assists in 8 matches

JoaquĂ­n Pereyra has 3 assists in 8 games, but his form is declining

Goalkeepers

Dallas' goalkeeper, Michael Collodi, has achieved 2 clean sheets this season

Drake Callender  is Minnesota United's goalkeeper, recording 3 clean sheets

Influences

The data regarding stadium, surface, or weather influences is limited

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