Major League Soccer
DC United - St. Louis City
05/16/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.8
1.3
1:1
13%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
DC United
St. Louis City
League
The Lab
- 1DC United with Nikola Markovic: 4.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2St. Louis City: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- 3St. Louis City with Rafael Santos: 2.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4St. Louis City: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 5DC United: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
42%
Draw
28%
Away Win
30%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
70%
Away or Draw
58%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- DC United has a home win probability of 42% according to mathematical analysis
- DC United shows a positive offensive trend, averaging 2.4 goals in recent games compared to their season average of 1.5 goals
- St. Louis City's defense is particularly vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 3.0 goals per away game
Risk Factors
- St. Louis City is missing Marcel Hartel and Daniel Ethan Edelman, resulting in only 63% of their usual goal production being available
- DC United had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- St. Louis City had only 2 days of rest since their last match
- St. Louis City averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
DC United (7th place, 16 points) host St. Louis City (14th place, 12 points) in Major League Soccer. The match will take place on May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM. DC United aims to improve their league position, while St. Louis City tries to move away from the bottom ranks.
Form
DC United's form across all competitions is DWWDL (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). Their last result was a loss. St. Louis City's form across all competitions is LLLWW (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses). They have won their last two matches.
Statistics
DC United has scored an average of 1.23 goals per game and conceded 1.54 goals per game this season. They kept 4 clean sheets. In home games, the average is 1.2 goals scored and 2.2 goals conceded. St. Louis City averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.58 goals conceded per game, with only 1 clean sheet this season. Away from home, they score an average of 1.0 goal but concede a high 3.0 goals per game.
Head-to-Head
There has only been one direct encounter between these two teams. It ended in a 2-2 draw on March 24, 2024. The historical record is therefore even with 0 wins for DC United, 0 wins for St. Louis City, and 1 draw. Both teams scored 2 goals in that match.
Key Players
For DC United, Tai Baribo stands out with 7 goals and 0 assists this season, scoring 4 goals in his last 5 games. Louis Munteanu also showed good form, with 4 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games. Jackson Hopkins contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games. For St. Louis City, Simon Becher (0 goals, 2 assists in last 5 games) and Rafael Santos (1 goal in last 3 games) as well as Sang-bin Jeong (1 goal in last 3 games) are the key players.
Goalkeepers
DC United's goalkeeper, Sean Johnson, has recorded 4 clean sheets this season. On St. Louis City's side, goalkeeper Roman BĆ¼rki has 1 clean sheet this season.
Influences
DC United has scored an average of 1.2 goals and conceded 2.2 goals in home matches. St. Louis City scored an average of 1.0 goal away but conceded a high 3.0 goals per game.