Match report →
DC United – Atlanta United0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
DC United
1.74
Total xG
2.99
Atlanta United
1.25
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | DC United | Atlanta United |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.27 | |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.18 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Peglow on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Jackson Hopkins on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Fafà Picault on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Tristan Muyumba on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 19% of goal output missing (only 86% available) |
Key factors
- DC United averaged 39% possession in recent matches, relying on counters with 4.2 shots on target
- Atlanta United concede an average of 2.20 goals in away games and have kept zero away clean sheets this season
- The mathematical model predicts a 74% probability for the double chance home win or draw
Risks
- Both teams enter the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- DC United's goal production has stalled recently, averaging 1.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.5
- Atlanta United averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
DC United48%
Draw26%
Atlanta United26%
Double chance
DC United or draw74%
Atlanta United or draw52%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- DC United: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (10 points lost)
- DC United: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Atlanta United: 44% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 16)
- DC United: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
- Atlanta United: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Atlanta United: 3 comebacks in 7 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
Lineups
DC United 4-4-2 · Atlanta United 4-3-3
DC United
- 1 S. Johnson
- 5 S. Hefti
- 3 L. Bartlett
- 15 K. Rowles
- 6 K. Kurokawa
- 2 K. Nono
- 21 A. Dozzell
- 23 B. Servania
- 22 N. Ordaz
- 11 L. Munteanu
- 9 T. Baribo
Atlanta United
- 1 L. Hoyos
- 55 T. Jacob
- 4 E. Mihaj
- 6 J. Alonso Mujica
- 3 E. Báez Sotelo
- 48 C. Sanchez
- 14 M. Amaro Viega
- 35 A. Fortune
- 59 A. Miranchuk
- 36 B. Embolo
- 10 M. Almirón Rejala
Substitutes
- 4 M. Peltola
- 8 J. Stroud
- 13 S. Nealis
- 25 J. Hopkins
- 26 A. Bono
- 27 N. Markovic
- 77 H. Kijima
- 8 T. Muyumba Nkita
- 20 L. Brennan
- 19 S. Santos Gomes
- 42 J. Hibbert
- 47 M. Edwards
- 16 A. Simons Gill
- 22 F. Picault
- 27 P. Díaz Huincales
- 28 W. Reilly
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