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Major League Soccer

DC United - Atlanta United

09/12/2026, 11:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
DC United
1.7
Total xG
3.0
Atlanta United
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
DUAU

DC United

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.27
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.15
Peglow on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
Jackson Hopkins on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)

Atlanta United

Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.18
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.10
FafĆ  Picault on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Tristan Muyumba on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 86% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    DC United: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (10 points lost)

  • 2
    DC United: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Atlanta United: 44% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 16)

  • 4
    DC United: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)

  • 5
    Atlanta United: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 6
    Atlanta United: 3 comebacks in 7 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

26%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • DC United averaged 39% possession in recent matches, relying on counters with 4.2 shots on target
  • Atlanta United concede an average of 2.20 goals in away games and have kept zero away clean sheets this season
  • The mathematical model predicts a 74% probability for the double chance home win or draw
Risk Factors
  • Both teams enter the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • DC United's goal production has stalled recently, averaging 1.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.5
  • Atlanta United averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
Overview

DC United host Atlanta United at Audi Field

Major League Soccer match on September 12, 2026, 11:30 PM

A lower-table clash between 11th and 14th place

DC United seek to build on 28 points, while Atlanta need a result with 22 points

Form

DC United hold a form of LLDDW in recent matches

Most recently securing a 2-1 home win against Columbus Crew

Atlanta United come in with a form of WWLDL

Most recently losing 2-3 at home against Orlando City

Form summary shows 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses for DC United and 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses for Atlanta United

Statistics

DC United average 1.30 goals scored and 1.61 goals conceded per match

Their home average stands at 1.31 goals scored and 1.77 goals conceded

Atlanta United score an average of 1.21 goals and concede 1.79 goals per game

In away games, Atlanta United concede an average of 2.20 goals

16 of 24 matches played by Atlanta United ended with both teams scoring

Head-to-Head

Even record with 1 win each and 3 draws in 5 head-to-head matches

Goal difference is perfectly balanced at 4-4

The last encounter ended in a 0-0 draw on March 21, 2026

Key Players

Tai Baribo scored 14 goals in 18 appearances with a season rating of 7.20

Louis Munteanu has recorded 6 goals and 3 assists in 19 matches

Kye Rowles stabilizes the defense with a season rating of 6.96

Miguel AlmirĆ³n registers 4 goals and 4 assists with a rating of 7.39

Aleksey Miranchuk contributed 5 goals and 7 assists in 23 games

Ajani Fortune recently scored 2 goals in his last 5 matches

Goalkeepers

Sean Johnson played 23 matches and kept 5 clean sheets

Lucas Hoyos has 24 appearances this season with 1 clean sheet

Influences

Home advantage for DC United at Audi Field on natural grass

Stadium stats show an average of 2.6 goals per match

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 home games

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