Major League Soccer
Atlanta United - LA Galaxy
05/09/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.6
1.3
1:1
14%1:2
8%2:1
8%0:2
7%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
Atlanta United
LA Galaxy
League
The Lab
- 1Atlanta United: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 2Atlanta United with FafĆ Picault: 4.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3LA Galaxy: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4LA Galaxy: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 5Atlanta United: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
33%
Draw
30%
Away Win
38%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
62%
Away or Draw
67%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- The pipeline analysis predicts an away win for LA Galaxy with a probability of 38%
- LA Galaxy is currently scoring more frequently (1.6) than their season average (1.5)
- Atlanta United has recently achieved two wins after three consecutive losses, indicating an improvement in form
Risk Factors
- Marco Reus is missing for LA Galaxy, with only 60% of the usual goal threat available
- LA Galaxy concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
Overview
Atlanta United (12th place, 10 points) host LA Galaxy (10th place, 13 points) in Major League Soccer
The match takes place on May 10, 2026, 12:30 AM
Both teams are in the lower mid-table positions
The aim is to move away from the relegation spots and close the gap to the upper ranks
Form
Atlanta United's form in their last five matches is LLLWW
This corresponds to 2 wins and 3 losses
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Atlanta's team has won their last two games, indicating an upward trend in form
LA Galaxy's form in their last five matches is WDLWD
This means 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
LA Galaxy has a more stable form curve with only one loss in their last five games
Statistics
Atlanta United averages 1.09 goals scored and 1.64 goals conceded per game this season
In home games, the goal average is 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded
LA Galaxy has scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 1.6 goals per game this season
Away from home, LA Galaxy scores an average of 1.4 goals and concedes 2.0 goals
Atlanta recorded 1 clean sheet, while LA Galaxy also achieved 1 clean sheet
For Atlanta, over 2.5 goals were scored in 6 matches, for LA Galaxy in 8 matches
LA Galaxy has not failed to score in any game this season
Both teams scored in 6 of Atlanta United's matches
Head-to-Head
There has only been one head-to-head match between these two teams so far
LA Galaxy won this match away from home on August 25, 2024, with a score of 2:0
The only encounter was therefore won by the away team
Key Players
For Atlanta United, Aleksey Miranchuk, Saba Lobjanidze, and Emmanuel Latte Lath are key offensive players
Aleksey Miranchuk contributed 5 goals and 2 assists in 10 season appearances and is in stable form
Saba Lobjanidze showed rising form in the last five games with 2 goals in 4 appearances
Emmanuel Latte Lath scored 2 goals and provided 2 assists in 11 season appearances
On LA Galaxy's side, Gabriel Pec, Joseph Paintsil, and Lucas Sanabria stand out
Gabriel Pec recorded 1 goal and 3 assists in 9 season appearances
Joseph Paintsil was involved in 1 goal and 2 assists in 6 season appearances, and scored 2 goals and 2 assists in his last five games
Lucas Sanabria contributed 2 goals in 10 season appearances
Goalkeepers
Lucas Hoyos is the goalkeeper for Atlanta United and achieved 1 clean sheet this season
On the opposing side, J. Marcinkowski is in goal for LA Galaxy, who also boasts 1 clean sheet this season
Influences
Atlanta United shows a home goal average of 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded
LA Galaxy scores an average of 1.4 goals away from home and concedes 2.0 goals