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Major League Soccer

Atlanta United - LA Galaxy

05/09/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Atlanta United
1.2
Total xG
2.6
LA Galaxy
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
AULG

Atlanta United

Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-1.24
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.57
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)

LA Galaxy

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.27
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.04
Marco Reus on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists)
57% of goal output missing (only 59% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlanta United: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    Atlanta United with FafĆ  Picault: 4.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    LA Galaxy: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    LA Galaxy: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 5
    Atlanta United: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

30%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • The pipeline analysis predicts an away win for LA Galaxy with a probability of 38%
  • LA Galaxy is currently scoring more frequently (1.6) than their season average (1.5)
  • Atlanta United has recently achieved two wins after three consecutive losses, indicating an improvement in form
Risk Factors
  • Marco Reus is missing for LA Galaxy, with only 60% of the usual goal threat available
  • LA Galaxy concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
Overview

Atlanta United (12th place, 10 points) host LA Galaxy (10th place, 13 points) in Major League Soccer

The match takes place on May 10, 2026, 12:30 AM

Both teams are in the lower mid-table positions

The aim is to move away from the relegation spots and close the gap to the upper ranks

Form

Atlanta United's form in their last five matches is LLLWW

This corresponds to 2 wins and 3 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Atlanta's team has won their last two games, indicating an upward trend in form

LA Galaxy's form in their last five matches is WDLWD

This means 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

LA Galaxy has a more stable form curve with only one loss in their last five games

Statistics

Atlanta United averages 1.09 goals scored and 1.64 goals conceded per game this season

In home games, the goal average is 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded

LA Galaxy has scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 1.6 goals per game this season

Away from home, LA Galaxy scores an average of 1.4 goals and concedes 2.0 goals

Atlanta recorded 1 clean sheet, while LA Galaxy also achieved 1 clean sheet

For Atlanta, over 2.5 goals were scored in 6 matches, for LA Galaxy in 8 matches

LA Galaxy has not failed to score in any game this season

Both teams scored in 6 of Atlanta United's matches

Head-to-Head

There has only been one head-to-head match between these two teams so far

LA Galaxy won this match away from home on August 25, 2024, with a score of 2:0

The only encounter was therefore won by the away team

Key Players

For Atlanta United, Aleksey Miranchuk, Saba Lobjanidze, and Emmanuel Latte Lath are key offensive players

Aleksey Miranchuk contributed 5 goals and 2 assists in 10 season appearances and is in stable form

Saba Lobjanidze showed rising form in the last five games with 2 goals in 4 appearances

Emmanuel Latte Lath scored 2 goals and provided 2 assists in 11 season appearances

On LA Galaxy's side, Gabriel Pec, Joseph Paintsil, and Lucas Sanabria stand out

Gabriel Pec recorded 1 goal and 3 assists in 9 season appearances

Joseph Paintsil was involved in 1 goal and 2 assists in 6 season appearances, and scored 2 goals and 2 assists in his last five games

Lucas Sanabria contributed 2 goals in 10 season appearances

Goalkeepers

Lucas Hoyos is the goalkeeper for Atlanta United and achieved 1 clean sheet this season

On the opposing side, J. Marcinkowski is in goal for LA Galaxy, who also boasts 1 clean sheet this season

Influences

Atlanta United shows a home goal average of 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded

LA Galaxy scores an average of 1.4 goals away from home and concedes 2.0 goals

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