Match report →
San Diego – Sporting KC0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
San Diego
2.14
Total xG
3.39
Sporting KC
1.25
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | San Diego | Sporting KC |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +1.04 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.76 | +0.76 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Gabriel Pirani on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Cédric Bakambu not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Aníbal Godoy on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jacob Bartlett not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: San Diego scores 2.31 goals per game at home in the league this season, Sporting KC concedes 2.88 away
- Form: Sporting KC is winless in their last 5 games with 4 losses, while San Diego recorded 1 win and 3 draws
- Table: San Diego has 38 points from 33 games in the league, while Sporting KC sits 15th with 23 points
Risks
- Defense: San Diego conceded 2.2 goals per game over their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
San Diego57%
Draw23%
Sporting KC21%
Double chance
San Diego or draw79%
Sporting KC or draw43%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.14 : 1.25, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
10%
2:0
8%
3:1
7%
2:2
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- San Diego: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sporting KC: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sporting KC: dropped a lead in 5 of 7 games (15 points lost)
- Sporting KC: 74% of all goals in the first half (14 of 19, last 12 games)
- Sporting KC with Taylor Calheira starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (16/8 games, last 30)
- San Diego: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (6 points lost)
Lineups
San Diego 4-3-3 · Sporting KC 4-4-2
San Diego
- 13 P. Sisniega Fink
- 3 D. Þórhallsson
- 97 C. Mcvey
- 26 M. Duah
- 5 K. Sargeant
- 70 A. Alvarado Jr.
- 15 P. Soma
- 8 O. Valakari
- 10 A. Dreyer
- 7 M. Ingvartsen
- 14 B. Zamblé
Sporting KC
- 30 S. Cleveland
- 8 J. Davis
- 15 J. Miller
- 28 W. Meyer
- 18 E. Karic
- 11 A. Inácio da Silva
- 4 L. Johnsen
- 33 O. Wolff
- 7 O. Capemba
- 19 T. Calheira
- 17 S. Afrifa
Substitutes
- 12 G. Cordeiro Pirani
- 1 C. Dos Santos
- 6 J. Tverskov
- 20 A. Godoy
- 25 I. Pilcher
- 33 O. Verhoeven
- 90 A. Pellegrino
- 19 D. Vazquez
- 36 D. Mimbang Nyangono
- 24 R. Ramos Jr.
- 1 J. Pulskamp
- 2 I. James
- 13 J. Reynolds
- 23 E. Bartlow
- 93 M. Suleymanov
- 61 Z. Loyo Reynaga
- 99 J. Reid
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