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Houston Dynamo – St. Louis City0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Houston Dynamo
1.24
Total xG
2.67
St. Louis City
1.44
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Houston Dynamo | St. Louis City |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.76 | +0.76 |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.45 | |
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.42 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.30 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.24 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Héctor Herrera on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Carlo Holse not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Daniel Ethan Edelman on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Attack: St. Louis City averaged 1.76 goals per game in the league this season, compared to 1.30 per game for Houston Dynamo
- Shots on target: St. Louis City averaged 5 shots on target per game in recent matches, compared to 1.8 per game for Houston Dynamo
Risks
- Form: St. Louis City went winless in their last 5 games with 4 losses, while Houston Dynamo recorded 1 win
- Defense: Houston Dynamo conceded 0.88 goals per game at home in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Houston Dynamo31%
Draw29%
St. Louis City40%
Double chance
Houston Dynamo or draw60%
St. Louis City or draw69%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.24 : 1.44, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- St. Louis City: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Houston Dynamo: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (8 points lost)
- Houston Dynamo: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- St. Louis City: 64% of all goals in the first half (18 of 28, last 12 games)
- St. Louis City: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Houston Dynamo 4-1-4-1 · St. Louis City 3-4-3
Houston Dynamo
- 31 J. Bond
- 36 F. de Andrade Vieira
- 5 L. Halter
- 34 A. Resch
- 21 F. Negri
- 6 J. de Lima Junior
- 11 L. Ennali
- 19 M. Bogusz
- 30 A. Bouzat
- 20 G. Vieira dos Santos
- 9 L. Foster
St. Louis City
- 39 B. Lundt
- 5 L. MacNaughton
- 32 T. Baumgartl
- 27 F. Fol
- 6 C. Wallem
- 21 D. Polvara
- 8 C. Durkin
- 14 T. Totland
- 77 S. Jeong
- 9 R. Navarro Leal
- 7 T. Ostrák
Substitutes
- 17 N. Markanich
- 23 D. McGuire
- 3 A. Cunha Capocasali Junior
- 14 D. Holmes
- 16 H. Herrera López
- 18 D. Samassekou
- 26 B. Gillingham
- 24 I. Aliyu
- 37 G. Rivera
- 42 D. Downs
- 11 S. Becher
- 24 D. Edelman
- 99 J. Orozco
- 4 M. Fall
- 91 Z. Zengue
- 18 C. Brunet
- 31 C. Olivares
- 23 A. Măţan
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