Match report →
Austin – Real Salt Lake1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Austin
1.19
Total xG
2.93
Real Salt Lake
1.74
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Austin | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.61x league average) | −0.87 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.74 | +0.74 |
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.30 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Christian Ramirez on the bench (9 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ervin Torres not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Jon Bell not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Brendan Hines-Ike on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| D. Luna not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 83% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Real Salt Lake have 3 wins in their last 5 matches, Austin have 1 win
- Defense: Austin conceded 2.6 goals per match in their last 5 games, Real Salt Lake 0.8 per match
- Head-to-head: Real Salt Lake won 3 of the 5 previous meetings, Austin won 0
Risks
- Away record: Real Salt Lake conceded 1.80 goals per match away in the league this season and scored 1.13 per match
All probabilities
Result
Austin25%
Draw27%
Real Salt Lake49%
Double chance
Austin or draw51%
Real Salt Lake or draw75%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.19 : 1.74, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
10%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Austin: 47% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 17)
- Austin: 76% of all goals in the second half (13 of 17, last 12 games)
- Austin: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Austin: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
Lineups
Austin 3-4-3 · Real Salt Lake 3-4-3
Austin
- 12 D. Las
- 3 M. Desler
- 6 I. Sánchez Farrés
- 29 Guilherme Biro
- 30 J. Rosales Erazo
- 14 B. Sabovic
- 24 J. Alastuey Aperte
- 17 J. Gallagher
- 10 M. Uzuni
- 9 B. Vázquez Toledo
- 11 F. Torres Pérez
Real Salt Lake
- 1 R. Cabral Barbosa
- 44 L. De Fougerolles
- 26 P. Quinton
- 3 K. Henry
- 11 D. Marczuk
- 92 N. Caliskan
- 6 S. Spierings
- 8 J. Sanabria Magole
- 12 S. Lobzhanidze
- 22 S. Solans Ormo
- 9 M. Guilavogui
Substitutes
- 77 P. Płacheta
- 1 B. Stuver
- 2 R. Thomas
- 4 B. Hines-Ike
- 5 O. Svatok
- 23 Ž. Kolmanič
- 32 M. Burton
- 35 M. Đorđević
- 21 C. Ramírez
- 23 C. Booth
- 25 C. Guske
- 2 D. Yedlin
- 15 J. Glad
- 19 A. Piol
- 29 S. Junqua
- 31 M. Stajduhar
- 39 A. Hezarkhani
- 98 A. Katranis
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