Match report →
Portland Timbers – Charlotte3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Portland Timbers
1.85
Total xG
3.27
Charlotte
1.42
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Portland Timbers | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.76 | +0.76 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.29 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.23 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.19 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 5, 6 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 11, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Allan Saint-Maximin on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.9 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Portland Timbers average 2.07 goals per home game, Charlotte concede 1.93 per away game
- Defense: Charlotte allowed 2.70 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but conceded 1.8 goals per game
Risks
- Table: Charlotte are 5th in the league with 47 points from 30 games, Portland Timbers are 11th with 34 points
- Form: Portland Timbers went winless in their last 5 games with 2 draws and 3 losses
All probabilities
Result
Portland Timbers46%
Draw25%
Charlotte28%
Double chance
Portland Timbers or draw72%
Charlotte or draw54%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.85 : 1.42, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Charlotte: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Charlotte with Liel Abada starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1 (16/7 games, last 30)
- Portland Timbers with Ariel Lassiter starting: 2.1 goals/game, without him: 1 (14/5 games, last 30)
Lineups
Portland Timbers 4-3-3 · Charlotte 4-2-3-1
Portland Timbers
- 41 J. Pantemis
- 12 R. Hernández Pimentel
- 2 J. Waterman
- 4 K. Miller
- 27 J. Fory
- 73 E. Izoita
- 30 J. Caicedo Barrera
- 10 D. Pereira da Costa
- 7 A. Lassiter
- 14 V. Janssen
- 99 K. Velde
Charlotte
- 1 K. Kahlina
- 14 N. Byrne
- 44 M. Agyemang
- 22 F. Kessler
- 23 D. Schnegg
- 8 A. Westwood
- 28 D. Diani
- 37 R. Aloko
- 16 P. Mas Jaume
- 11 L. Abada
- 9 Idan Toklomati
Substitutes
- 15 E. Miller
- 20 F. Surman
- 23 I. Smith
- 28 A. Aravena Guzmán
- 80 J. Ortiz Landázuri
- 17 C. Bassett
- 21 D. Chará Zamora
- 26 H. Sulte
- 22 O. Fernandez
- 17 L. de la Torre
- 21 T. Miller
- 10 A. Saint-Maximin
- 4 A. Privett
- 15 H. Toffolo
- 25 T. Smalls
- 39 J. Neeley
- 20 B. Coulibaly
- 71 N. Richmond
- 83 H. Mbongue
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