Match report →
Columbus Crew – Toronto4 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Columbus Crew
2.00
Total xG
3.07
Toronto
1.06
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Columbus Crew | Toronto |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.22 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Brais Méndez on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Josef Martínez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Dániel Sallói on the bench (8 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Alonso Coello on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Columbus Crew with 4 wins from their last 5 games, Toronto with 2
- Home/Away: Columbus Crew scored 1.47 goals per home game in the league this season, Toronto 0.86 per away game
- Tactics: Columbus Crew averaged 8 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, Toronto 4.2
Risks
- Table: Toronto is ahead in the league with 36 points from 30 games, compared to Columbus Crew with 35 points
- Head-to-head: Toronto won the last meeting 2-1 on 2026-03-21
All probabilities
Result
Columbus Crew58%
Draw24%
Toronto18%
Double chance
Columbus Crew or draw82%
Toronto or draw42%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.00 : 1.06, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
9%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
4:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Toronto: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against CF Montréal: 2 goals (90+3', 90+5')
- Toronto: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Columbus Crew: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Toronto: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- Toronto: 7 of 22 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Columbus Crew with Mohamed Farsi starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (14/12 games, last 30)
Lineups
Columbus Crew 4-4-2 · Toronto 4-3-3
Columbus Crew
- 28 P. Schulte
- 31 S. Moreira
- 25 S. Zawadzki
- 18 M. Amundsen
- 21 A. Zaroury
- 23 M. Farsi
- 17 S. Tidiany Bangoura
- 7 D. Chambost
- 8 S. Rodríguez Molina
- 16 T. Habroune
- 33 G. Tapia Dubournais
Toronto
- 1 L. Gavran
- 22 R. Laryea
- 13 B. Kuscevic Jaramillo
- 12 Z. Monlouis
- 3 M. Pereira de Souza
- 6 N. Dorsch
- 10 D. Mihailovic
- 21 J. Osorio
- 7 T. Corbeanu
- 9 J. Sargent
- 90 L. Morgan
Substitutes
- 10 B. Méndez Portela
- 20 A. Tavares Gomes
- 1 N. Hagen Godoy
- 2 M. Herrera Mansilla
- 19 J. Thiaré
- 12 C. Ruvalcaba Perez
- 77 J. Martínez
- 26 L. Giaccone
- 11 B. Lennon
- 50 T. Karumanchi
- 39 K. Gbamblé
- 11 D. Etienne Jr.
- 14 A. Coello Camarero
- 17 E. Aristizábal Chavarriaga
- 19 K. Franklin
- 20 D. Salloi
- 23 W. Yarbrough Story
- 44 R. Edwards
- 71 M. Cimermancic
- 15 N. Gomis
- 38 J. Gilman
- 96 R. Chukwu
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