Match report →
New York RB – Toronto0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
New York RB
2.15
Total xG
3.39
Toronto
1.24
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | New York RB | Toronto |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.77 | +0.77 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | +0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.00 | |
| Jorge Ruvalcaba on the bench (8 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 95% available) | ||
| Dániel Sallói on the bench (7 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Alonso Coello on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Richie Laryea on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Toronto average 0.77 goals per game away in the league this season, New York RB 1.57 at home
- Form: New York RB with 3 wins from their last 5 games, Toronto with 1
- Head-to-head: New York RB took 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5 meetings with Toronto
Risks
- Defense: New York RB concede 1.93 goals per game at home in the league this season
- Rest days: New York RB with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
New York RB57%
Draw23%
Toronto20%
Double chance
New York RB or draw80%
Toronto or draw43%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
Most likely scores
1:1
10%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
3:1
7%
2:2
6%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Toronto: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Toronto: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Toronto: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against CF Montréal: 2 goals (90+3', 90+5')
- Toronto: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- New York RB: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
- New York RB: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
New York RB 4-3-3 · Toronto 4-4-2
New York RB
- 34 E. Horvath
- 12 D. Nealis
- 2 J. Che
- 14 J. Bazán Medina
- 59 D. Padelford
- 48 R. Donkor
- 15 A. Mehmeti
- 37 M. Sofo
- 17 C. Harper
- 16 J. Hall
- 7 C. Cowell
Toronto
- 1 L. Gavran
- 19 K. Franklin
- 12 Z. Monlouis
- 15 N. Gomis
- 3 M. Pereira de Souza
- 7 T. Corbeanu
- 6 N. Dorsch
- 21 J. Osorio
- 90 L. Morgan
- 9 J. Sargent
- 10 D. Mihailovic
Substitutes
- 3 J. Marshall-Rutty
- 10 E. Forsberg
- 11 J. Ruvalcaba
- 13 J. Choupo-Moting
- 56 M. Dos Santos
- 77 J. McCarthy
- 79 R. Mosquera
- 26 T. Parker
- 60 S. Kone
- 45 C. Faello
- 88 P. Castro
- 22 R. Laryea
- 11 D. Etienne Jr.
- 14 A. Coello Camarero
- 17 E. Aristizábal Chavarriaga
- 20 D. Salloi
- 23 W. Yarbrough Story
- 44 R. Edwards
- 71 M. Cimermancic
- 13 B. Kuscevic Jaramillo
- 38 J. Gilman
- 27 A. Piedrahita Díaz
- 96 R. Chukwu
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