Match report →
Minnesota United – St. Louis City3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Minnesota United
1.77
Total xG
3.24
St. Louis City
1.47
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Minnesota United | St. Louis City |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.76 | +0.76 |
| Rising form (4 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.62 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.38 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap) | −0.22 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.04 | |
| Tomás Chancalay on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Marcus Caldeira on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Kyle Duncan on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 78% available) | ||
| Carlo Holse on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Daniel Ethan Edelman on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Conrad Wallem not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Alexandru Mățan on the bench (0 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Chris Durkin not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Attack: Minnesota United scored 1.8 goals per match in the last 5 matches, St. Louis City 3.2 goals per match
- Head-to-head: Minnesota United won 4 of the 5 direct meetings against St. Louis City
Risks
- Form: St. Louis City won 4 of its last 5 matches, Minnesota United won none
- Table: St. Louis City is 2nd in the league with 51 points, Minnesota United 13th with 31 points
All probabilities
Result
Minnesota United43%
Draw26%
St. Louis City31%
Double chance
Minnesota United or draw69%
St. Louis City or draw57%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Minnesota United: dropped a lead in 5 of 6 games (12 points lost)
- Minnesota United: opponent scores first in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Minnesota United: 10 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- St. Louis City: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- St. Louis City: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- St. Louis City: 65% of all goals in the first half (20 of 31, last 12 games)
Lineups
Minnesota United 3-4-3 · St. Louis City 3-4-1-2
Minnesota United
- 12 D. Callender
- 52 C. Valerius
- 28 J. Díaz Beleño
- 23 M. Duggan
- 21 B. Hlongwane
- 25 N. Triantis
- 20 W. Trapp
- 13 A. Markanich
- 16 A. Jackson
- 9 K. Yeboah
- 18 M. Gonzalez
St. Louis City
- 1 R. Bürki
- 99 J. Orozco
- 32 T. Baumgartl
- 27 F. Fol
- 59 M. Joyner
- 21 D. Polvara
- 28 M. Perez
- 14 T. Totland
- 77 S. Jeong
- 11 S. Becher
- 9 R. Navarro Leal
Substitutes
- 11 M. Malone
- 3 K. Duncan
- 8 T. Chancalay
- 15 M. Boxall
- 26 J. Pereyra
- 30 O. Géne
- 5 N. Romero
- 22 M. Caldeira
- 94 K. Rizvanovich
- 42 D. Downs
- 19 C. Holse
- 5 L. MacNaughton
- 20 R. Cardoso dos Santos
- 24 D. Edelman
- 39 B. Lundt
- 7 T. Ostrák
- 18 C. Brunet
- 23 A. Măţan
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