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Major League Soccer10/14/2026, 11:30 PM

Columbus Crew – Charlotte3 : 1

Why the model thinks so

Columbus Crew
1.87
Total xG
3.11
Charlotte
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorColumbus CrewCharlotte
High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match)+1.11+1.11
Attack weakness (0.71x league average)−0.49
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 5, 8 places gap)−0.16
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 13, 8 places gap)+0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)−0.04
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)+0.02
W. Abou Ali not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 80% available)
David Schnegg on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.9 goals/match)

Key factors

  • The predictive model gives Columbus Crew a 51% win probability at home
  • Charlotte's potent attack with 50 goals is led by Pep Biel (12 goals, 8 assists) and Idan Toklomati (11 goals)
  • Charlotte have won 3 of the last 5 direct meetings against Columbus Crew

Risks

  • Charlotte concede an average of 2.0 goals per away match
  • Columbus Crew are missing attacker W. Abou Ali, who has scored 5 goals this season

All probabilities

Result
Columbus Crew51%
Draw25%
Charlotte24%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Double chance
Columbus Crew or draw76%
Charlotte or draw49%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%

Most likely scores

1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Columbus Crew: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
  2. Charlotte with Liel Abada starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1 (15/7 games, last 28)
  3. Columbus Crew: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
  4. Columbus Crew with Mohamed Farsi starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (13/11 games, last 28)

Lineups

Columbus Crew 3-4-3 · Charlotte 4-2-3-1

Columbus Crew
  • 28 P. Schulte
  • 31 S. Moreira
  • 25 S. Zawadzki
  • 18 M. Amundsen
  • 23 M. Farsi
  • 7 D. Chambost
  • 16 T. Habroune
  • 21 A. Zaroury
  • 10 B. MĂ©ndez Portela
  • 77 J. MartĂ­nez
  • 8 S. RodrĂ­guez Molina
Charlotte
  • 1 K. Kahlina
  • 35 W. Cleary
  • 22 F. Kessler
  • 3 T. Ream
  • 15 H. Toffolo
  • 8 A. Westwood
  • 13 B. Bronico
  • 11 L. Abada
  • 16 P. Mas Jaume
  • 10 A. Saint-Maximin
  • 9 Idan Toklomati
Substitutes
  • 3 E. Bailly
  • 20 A. Tavares Gomes
  • 1 N. Hagen Godoy
  • 2 M. Herrera Mansilla
  • 17 S. Tidiany Bangoura
  • 19 J. ThiarĂ©
  • 33 G. Tapia Dubournais
  • 26 L. Giaccone
  • 11 B. Lennon
  • 17 L. de la Torre
  • 21 T. Miller
  • 4 A. Privett
  • 14 N. Byrne
  • 23 D. Schnegg
  • 25 T. Smalls
  • 28 D. Diani
  • 44 M. Agyemang
  • 37 R. Aloko

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