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Major League Soccer

Real Salt Lake - New England

09/27/2026, 01:30 AM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Real Salt Lake
1.3
Total xG
3.2
New England
1.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

9%

0:2

7%

2:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
RSLNE

Real Salt Lake

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.25
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.25
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap)
-0.16
Juan Manuel Sanabria not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Saba Lobjanidze not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)

New England

Attack strength (1.32x league average)
+0.57
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.18
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.18
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap)
+0.10
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.07
Dor Turgeman not in squad (7 goals, 8 assists)
Peyton Miller not in squad (7 goals, 4 assists)
Alhassan Yusuf not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
Jack Harrison not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
40% of goal output missing (only 62% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    New England: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Real Salt Lake: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Real Salt Lake: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 4
    Real Salt Lake: 2.9 cards per game (31 yellows, 1 reds in 11 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

26%

Draw

25%

Away Win

49%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

51%

Away or Draw

74%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • Strong form: New England currently scores more frequently with an average of 2.4 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.8
  • Tactical threat: New England averaged 7.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Mathematical backing: The pipeline model calculates a 49% probability for an away win
Risk Factors
  • Dor Turgeman, Peyton Miller, Alhassan Yusuf, and Jack Harrison are missing, leaving only 63% of the goal threat available
  • Real Salt Lake faces a shorter recovery window with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • New England concedes an average of 1.82 goals per away game
Overview

Real Salt Lake (13th place, 29 points) hosts New England (2nd place, 46 points) at America First Field

MLS match on September 27, 2026, 3:30 AM

The roles are clearly assigned before this meeting due to the standings

Form

Real Salt Lake is in a deep crisis with a form of DLLLL from their recent matches

From the last 5 games, the home side failed to win a single match, suffering 4 defeats

It is a completely different story for New England with a form of WLWWW and 4 wins from 5 games

Statistics

Real Salt Lake scores an average of 1.42 goals per game but also concedes 1.69 goals

New England possesses a more dangerous attack with 1.73 goals per match while conceding only 1.27

However, on the road, the visitors show increased vulnerability, conceding an average of 1.82 goals

Head-to-Head

There has been only one direct duel between these two teams so far

Real Salt Lake won this match at home 2-0 on September 1, 2024

New England is therefore still waiting for their first goal in the history of this matchup

Key Players

Sergi Solans has recorded 9 goals and 3 assists for the hosts

Morgan Guilavogui contributed 2 goals and 4 assists so far this season

Noel Caliskan shines in midfield with 1 goal and 4 assists

Carles Gil drives the visitors with 12 goals and 4 assists

Luca Langoni recorded 3 goals and 6 assists for New England

Matt Polster has 1 goal and 2 assists for the away side

Goalkeepers

Rafael Cabral played 25 matches for Real Salt Lake this season and kept 2 clean sheets

Matt Turner completed 26 games in goal for New England and registered 5 clean sheets

The statistical values slightly favor the visiting goalkeeper in this comparison

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at America First Field

The historical home record at this venue shows an average of 3.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of the matches played at this stadium

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