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Major League Soccer

Seattle Sounders - Sporting KC

10/02/2026, 01:30 AM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Seattle Sounders
1.7
Total xG
2.7
Sporting KC
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
SSSK

Seattle Sounders

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.41
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.26
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.13
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 15, 6 places gap)
+0.05
Kalani Kossa-Rienzi on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Dejan Joveljić not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
20% of goal output missing (only 92% available)

Sporting KC

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.30
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.30
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 9, 6 places gap)
-0.07
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.2 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Seattle Sounders: 8 of 18 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Sporting KC with Taylor Calheira starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (10/8 games, last 26)

  • 3
    Seattle Sounders with Cristian RoldƔn starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.7 (16/7 games, last 26)

  • 4
    Seattle Sounders: 3 comebacks in 5 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)

  • 5
    Seattle Sounders: 5 of 15 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 6
    Sporting KC: 61% of all goals in the first half (11 of 18, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

27%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Massive away weakness: Sporting KC concedes an average of 3.36 goals per away match this season
  • Surface advantage: Sporting KC lost all 3 matches on artificial turf this season with a 1:11 goal ratio
  • Offensive trend: Seattle currently scores more frequently (2.3 goals) compared to their season average (1.4 goals)
Risk Factors
  • Absence in attack: Seattle must play without the injured Paul Rothrock who scored 5 goals this season
  • Home weakness on turf: Seattle has already lost 5 matches on their own artificial surface
  • Dangerous opponent form: Sporting KC currently scores 2.2 goals per match, well above their season average of 1.2 goals
Overview

Seattle Sounders (9th place, 35 points) host Sporting KC (15th place, 21 points) at Lumen Field

Major League Soccer match on October 2, 2026, 3:30 AM

The mathematical model predicts 1.68 goals for Seattle and 1.03 for the visitors

Form

Seattle Sounders show a form of DDDWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They remain unbeaten in their last 5 games with 2 wins and 3 draws

Sporting KC enter with a form of LLWLW

The visitors recorded 2 wins and 3 losses recently

Statistics

Seattle averages 1.27 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded per match

Sporting KC struggles defensively with an average of 2.42 goals conceded per game

The visitors average a high 3.36 goals conceded in away games

Head-to-Head

Out of 5 head-to-head matches, Seattle won 3, Sporting KC won 1, with 1 draw

The goal difference is 12:7 in favor of Seattle

The last meeting on May 2, 2026, ended in a 1:1 draw

Key Players

Albert RusnƔk dominates the midfield with 4 goals and 11 assists, averaging a 7.24 rating

Cristian RoldƔn contributed 4 goals and 1 assist this season

Jordan Morris has a rating of 6.85 with 2 goals and 3 assists

Goalkeepers

Andrew Thomas has played 26 matches, keeping 7 clean sheets

Stefan Cleveland recorded only 1 clean sheet this season

Influences

The match is played on artificial turf

Seattle has a home record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses on this surface

Sporting KC lost all 3 matches on artificial turf this season with a 1:11 goal ratio

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