Match report →
Cincinnati – Charlotte3 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Cincinnati
1.79
Total xG
3.14
Charlotte
1.35
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cincinnati | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.46 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.40 | |
| Rising form (2.5 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.18 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Evander on the bench (13 goals, 10 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 79% available) | ||
| David Schnegg on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Ashley Westwood not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form gap: Charlotte shows rising form with 2.5 recent goals per game, while Cincinnati's attack has stalled at 0.8
- H2H dominance: Charlotte remains unbeaten against Cincinnati in their last 5 direct encounters, securing 3 wins
- High-scoring venue: Matches at the TQL Stadium average 5.2 goals, with a 100% BTTS rate recorded there
Risks
- High fatigue: Both teams face each other with only 3 days of rest since their last competitive match
- Defensive leaks on the road: Charlotte concedes a high average of 2.22 goals per away game
- Vulnerable defense: Cincinnati concedes a high season average of 2.43 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Cincinnati47%
Draw26%
Charlotte28%
Double chance
Cincinnati or draw72%
Charlotte or draw53%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
3:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cincinnati: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Charlotte: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Cincinnati: dropped a lead in 6 of 10 games (14 points lost)
- Charlotte: 64% of all goals in the first half (14 of 22, last 12 games)
Lineups
Cincinnati 3-5-2 · Charlotte 4-3-3
Cincinnati
- 18 R. Celentano
- 12 M. Robinson
- 4 N. Hagglund
- 88 A. Chirila
- 66 E. Echenique Peña
- 20 P. Bucha
- 11 S. Gidi
- 22 G. Valenzuela
- 17 K. Mboma Dem
- 16 T. Barlow
- 9 A. Denkey
Charlotte
- 1 K. Kahlina
- 35 W. Cleary
- 22 F. Kessler
- 3 T. Ream
- 14 N. Byrne
- 17 L. de la Torre
- 28 D. Diani
- 11 L. Abada
- 16 P. Mas Jaume
- 10 A. Saint-Maximin
- 9 Idan Toklomati
Substitutes
- 2 A. Powell
- 13 E. Louro
- 15 T. Hadebe
- 24 K. Smith
- 29 B. Ramírez León
- 99 A. Jabbari
- 14 K. Fletcher
- 19 S. Chirila
- 21 T. Miller
- 4 A. Privett
- 13 B. Bronico
- 25 T. Smalls
- 39 J. Neeley
- 44 M. Agyemang
- 37 R. Aloko
- 20 B. Coulibaly
- 71 N. Richmond
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