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Major League Soccer

Cincinnati - Charlotte

09/12/2026, 11:30 PM

3 : 3
Expected Goals
Cincinnati
1.8
Total xG
3.1
Charlotte
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
CINCHA

Cincinnati

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.46
Declining form (0.8 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.40
Evander on the bench (13 goals, 10 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 79% available)

Charlotte

Rising form (2.5 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.18
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.03
David Schnegg on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Ashley Westwood not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cincinnati: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Charlotte: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 3
    Cincinnati: dropped a lead in 6 of 10 games (14 points lost)

  • 4
    Charlotte: 64% of all goals in the first half (14 of 22, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

26%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • Form gap: Charlotte shows rising form with 2.5 recent goals per game, while Cincinnati's attack has stalled at 0.8
  • H2H dominance: Charlotte remains unbeaten against Cincinnati in their last 5 direct encounters, securing 3 wins
  • High-scoring venue: Matches at the TQL Stadium average 5.2 goals, with a 100% BTTS rate recorded there
Risk Factors
  • High fatigue: Both teams face each other with only 3 days of rest since their last competitive match
  • Defensive leaks on the road: Charlotte concedes a high average of 2.22 goals per away game
  • Vulnerable defense: Cincinnati concedes a high season average of 2.43 goals per match
Overview

Cincinnati hosts Charlotte at the TQL Stadium

Major League Soccer match on September 12, 2026, 11:30 PM

The 7th-placed hosts face the 5th-placed visitors

Form

Cincinnati displays a shaky run of form with a WDLDL record

The home side secured only one victory in their last five matches

Charlotte is in strong shape with a DWWDW record

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Cincinnati averages 2.13 goals scored and 2.43 goals conceded per game

Charlotte registers 1.75 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded per match

The visitors concede an average of 2.22 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 recent head-to-head matches between these teams

Charlotte dominates the record with 3 wins and no defeats

The last encounter ended in a 2:2 draw

Key Players

KĆ©vin Denkey leads the home attack with 11 season goals

Pavel Bucha scored 5 goals and registered 4 assists

Kenji Mboma Dem contributed 5 goals in 19 appearances

Not nominated: Evander (13T/10A)

Pep Biel shines for the visitors with 11 goals and 7 assists

Idan Toklomati scored 8 times this season

Liel Abada contributed 4 goals and 5 assists

Not nominated: David Schnegg (2T/3A), Ashley Westwood (2T/3A)

Goalkeepers

Roman Celentano recorded 2 clean sheets this season for Cincinnati

Kristijan Kahlina guards Charlotte's goal with 5 clean sheets and a 7.14 average rating

Influences

Matches at the TQL Stadium averaged 5.2 goals per game over the last 5 fixtures

The BTTS rate at the home venue is 100%

The match will be played on natural grass

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