Match report →
Charlotte – Houston Dynamo0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Charlotte
1.52
Total xG
2.63
Houston Dynamo
1.10
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Charlotte | Houston Dynamo |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.38 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.12 | |
| Jack McGlynn not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Offensive trend: Charlotte has recently scored an average of 2.4 goals per match, exceeding their season average of 1.9
- Tactical edge: Charlotte averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to Houston's average of 3.4
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis forecasts a 45% home win probability with 1.52 expected goals for Charlotte
Risks
- Average attack: Houston Dynamo averaged 3.4 shots on target in recent matches amid a stalling offensive output
- Strong defense: Houston Dynamo conceded an average of only 0.5 goals per match in recent games
- Restricted data on weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Charlotte45%
Draw29%
Houston Dynamo26%
Double chance
Charlotte or draw74%
Houston Dynamo or draw55%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Houston Dynamo: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Houston Dynamo: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 17)
- Charlotte: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Charlotte 4-2-3-1 · Houston Dynamo 4-2-3-1
Charlotte
- 1 K. Kahlina
- 35 W. Cleary
- 22 F. Kessler
- 3 T. Ream
- 23 D. Schnegg
- 28 D. Diani
- 8 A. Westwood
- 11 L. Abada
- 16 P. Mas Jaume
- 10 A. Saint-Maximin
- 9 Idan Toklomati
Houston Dynamo
- 31 J. Bond
- 36 F. de Andrade Vieira
- 5 L. Halter
- 34 A. Resch
- 11 L. Ennali
- 6 J. de Lima Junior
- 16 H. Herrera López
- 19 M. Bogusz
- 30 A. Bouzat
- 20 G. Vieira dos Santos
- 23 D. McGuire
Substitutes
- 17 L. de la Torre
- 21 T. Miller
- 4 A. Privett
- 7 A. Goodwin
- 13 B. Bronico
- 14 N. Byrne
- 25 T. Smalls
- 44 M. Agyemang
- 37 R. Aloko
- 17 N. Markanich
- 3 A. Cunha Capocasali Junior
- 14 D. Holmes
- 18 D. Samassekou
- 21 F. Negri
- 22 M. Arana Ibarra
- 26 B. Gillingham
- 24 I. Aliyu
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