Match report →
Real Salt Lake – Los Angeles FC2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Real Salt Lake
1.36
Total xG
2.59
Los Angeles FC
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Real Salt Lake | Los Angeles FC |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.42 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.39 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.26 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Timothy Tillman not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Tactical style: Real Salt Lake played counter-oriented in recent matches with an average of 44.8% possession
- Squad update: Timothy Tillman with 1 goal and 2 assists is missing from the Los Angeles FC starting XI
- Historical edge: Los Angeles FC won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings against Real Salt Lake
Risks
- Severe slump: Both sides are winless in their last 5 matches
- Los Angeles FC attacking dip: Visitors averaged only 0.5 goals recently compared to 1.8 season average
- Real Salt Lake efficiency loss: Home side's recent goals average dropped to 1.2 from 1.62
All probabilities
Result
Real Salt Lake38%
Draw30%
Los Angeles FC32%
Double chance
Real Salt Lake or draw68%
Los Angeles FC or draw62%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Salt Lake: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (12 points lost)
- Los Angeles FC: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 16)
- Real Salt Lake: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Real Salt Lake 3-4-3 · Los Angeles FC 3-4-2-1
Real Salt Lake
- 1 R. Cabral Barbosa
- 26 P. Quinton
- 21 J. Arias
- 4 L. Engel
- 98 A. Katranis
- 92 N. Caliskan
- 34 L. Moisa
- 8 J. Sanabria Magole
- 12 S. Lobzhanidze
- 22 S. Solans Ormo
- 10 D. Luna
Los Angeles FC
- 1 H. Lloris
- 33 A. Long
- 91 Nkosi Tafari
- 23 Y. Cheberko
- 24 R. Hollingshead
- 66 M. Choiniere
- 8 M. Delgado
- 18 J. Shaffelburg
- 19 T. Boyd
- 99 D. Bouanga
- 7 H. Son
Substitutes
- 25 C. Guske
- 13 J. Shokalook
- 2 D. Yedlin
- 31 M. Stajduhar
- 39 A. Hezarkhani
- 3 K. Henry
- 70 L. Rodrigues dos Santos
- 9 A. Sieb
- 4 E. Segura Martínez
- 14 S. Palencia Hurtado
- 21 R. Raposo
- 45 K. Nielsen
- 22 J. Terry
- 31 C. Carter
- 17 J. Ebobisse
- 90 T. Mihalic
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