Major League Soccer
Portland Timbers - Austin
08/30/2026, 02:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.9
2.9
1.0
1:1
12%2:0
10%2:1
10%3:0
7%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Portland Timbers
Austin
League
The Lab
- 1Portland Timbers: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- 2Austin: 8 of 21 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- 3Portland Timbers: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
58%
Draw
25%
Away Win
17%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
83%
Away or Draw
42%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Attacking advantage against vulnerable defense: Portland's home offense (1.77 goals average) meets Austin's weak away defense which concedes an average of 3.0 goals per game
- Strong home record on artificial turf: Portland has already recorded 6 wins and only 2 losses on this surface this season
- Statistical advantage for the hosts: The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 59% for Portland
Risk Factors
- Austin's stalling goal production: The visitors score an average of only 0.8 goals in recent matches compared to their season average of 1.3
- Portland's defensive vulnerability: The home side concedes an average of 1.76 goals per game this season
- Missing offensive power: Portland is without key goalscorer Kevin Kelsy (9 goals, 2 assists) who is not selected
Overview
Portland Timbers host Austin in Major League Soccer
Match on August 30, 2026, 4:30 AM at Providence Park
Portland is in 9th place with 28 points, while Austin sits in 14th with 21 points
The home side enters this match as the clear favorite
Form
Portland shows stable form with a record of WWLWD
In their last 5 matches, the home team recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
Austin travels with a weaker form record of LLLWD
The visitors recently registered 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Portland scores an average of 1.81 goals and concedes 1.76 goals per game this season
In home matches, the team averages 1.77 goals scored and 1.23 goals conceded
Austin averages 1.24 goals scored and 1.9 goals conceded per match this season
The visitors struggle especially away from home, conceding an average of 3.0 goals while scoring only 1.2
Head-to-Head
In 4 head-to-head matches, Portland won 2, Austin won 1, and 1 ended in a draw
The goal difference stands at 3:1 in favor of the home team
The last encounter on April 5, 2025, ended in a 0:0 draw
The historical record slightly favors Portland
Key Players
Kristoffer Velde impresses with 5 goals and 6 assists, averaging a 7.19 rating
David Da Costa has contributed 3 goals and 6 assists with a 7.13 rating
Cole Bassett recorded 3 goals and 3 assists this season
Not selected: Kevin Kelsy (9 goals, 2 assists) and Brandon Bye (1 goal, 3 assists)
Not selected for the visitors: Myrto Uzuni (6 goals, 1 assist) and Brendan Hines-Ike (2 goals, 0 assists)
Facundo Torres is a key asset for Austin with 2 goals and 5 assists
Ervin Torres has registered 1 goal and 2 assists with a 6.81 rating
J. Rosales contributed 1 goal and 2 assists for the visitors
Goalkeepers
James Pantemis guards Portland's goal and played 21 games this season with 1 clean sheet
On the other side, Brad Stuver features in goal for Austin, keeping 4 clean sheets in 20 appearances
Influences
The game will be played on artificial turf at Providence Park
Portland boasts a strong record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses on artificial turf
Austin has recorded 1 win and 1 loss on this surface so far
Stadium statistics show high-scoring matches with an average of 3.6 goals per game