Match report ā
Portland Timbers ā Austin1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Portland Timbers
1.92
Total xG
2.87
Austin
0.96
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Portland Timbers | Austin |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Attack weakness (0.58x league average) | ā0.64 | |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.64 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | ā0.15 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | ā0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | ā0.00 | |
| Kevin Kelsy on the bench (9 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Brandon Bye not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 30% of goal output missing (only 78% available) | ||
| Myrto Uzuni on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Brendan Hines-Ike on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 33% of goal output missing (only 95% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Attacking advantage against vulnerable defense: Portland's home offense (1.77 goals average) meets Austin's weak away defense which concedes an average of 3.0 goals per game
- Strong home record on artificial turf: Portland has already recorded 6 wins and only 2 losses on this surface this season
- Statistical advantage for the hosts: The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 59% for Portland
Risks
- Austin's stalling goal production: The visitors score an average of only 0.8 goals in recent matches compared to their season average of 1.3
- Portland's defensive vulnerability: The home side concedes an average of 1.76 goals per game this season
- Missing offensive power: Portland is without key goalscorer Kevin Kelsy (9 goals, 2 assists) who is not selected
All probabilities
Result
Portland Timbers58%
Draw25%
Austin17%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Double chance
Portland Timbers or draw83%
Austin or draw42%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Portland Timbers: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Austin: 8 of 21 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Portland Timbers: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Portland Timbers 4-3-3 Ā· Austin 3-4-2-1
Portland Timbers
- 41 J. Pantemis
- 15 E. Miller
- 20 F. Surman
- 4 K. Miller
- 27 J. Fory
- 17 C. Bassett
- 30 J. Caicedo Barrera
- 10 D. Pereira da Costa
- 7 A. Lassiter
- 88 G. Guerra
- 99 K. Velde
Austin
- 1 B. Stuver
- 3 M. Desler
- 15 J. Bell
- 29 Guilherme Biro
- 30 J. Rosales Erazo
- 38 E. Torres
- 14 B. Sabovic
- 17 J. Gallagher
- 11 F. Torres PĆ©rez
- 24 J. Alastuey Aperte
- 9 B. VƔzquez Toledo
Substitutes
- 11 A. Alves Santos
- 16 S. Jura
- 23 I. Smith
- 73 E. Izoita
- 80 J. Ortiz LandƔzuri
- 6 A. Bonetig
- 26 H. Sulte
- 22 O. Fernandez
- 18 Z. McGraw
- 77 P. PÅacheta
- 4 B. Hines-Ike
- 5 O. Svatok
- 6 I. SƔnchez FarrƩs
- 12 D. Las
- 23 Ž. KolmaniÄ
- 32 M. Burton
- 35 M. ÄorÄeviÄ
- 21 C. RamĆrez
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