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Major League Soccer

LA Galaxy - SJ Earthquakes

08/20/2026, 02:30 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
LA Galaxy
1.5
Total xG
2.8
SJ Earthquakes
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
LGSE

LA Galaxy

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.26
Declining form (0.5 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.23
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 4, 9 places gap)
-0.15
Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.3 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

SJ Earthquakes

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (1.4 vs 2 season average)
-0.18
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.14
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 13, 9 places gap)
+0.06
Preston Judd on the bench (11 goals, 3 assists)
Timo Werner on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)
Daniel Munie on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists)
Ousseni Bouda on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
Beau Leroux on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
Reid Roberts not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
74% of goal output missing (only 48% available)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    LA Galaxy with Miki Yamane: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    SJ Earthquakes with Jack Jasinski: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    SJ Earthquakes: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

28%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Only 48% of the attacking threat available for SJ Earthquakes, without Preston Judd, Timo Werner, Daniel Munie, Ousseni Bouda, Beau Leroux, Reid Roberts
  • LA Galaxy averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • The mathematical model predicts a close match with a home win probability of 39% and an away win probability of 33%
Risk Factors
  • LA Galaxy is currently scoring less with an average of 0.5 goals compared to their season average of 1.3
  • Both teams show a negative form trend, with LA Galaxy winless in their last 5 matches
Overview

LA Galaxy host SJ Earthquakes at Dignity Health Sports Park

Major League Soccer match on August 20, 2026, 4:30 AM

LA Galaxy in 13th place (22 points) face 4th-placed SJ Earthquakes (33 points)

Form

LA Galaxy form: LLDDL (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)

SJ Earthquakes form: WLDLL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)

Both sides show a negative form trend in recent games

Statistics

LA Galaxy average 1.2 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded per match

SJ Earthquakes average 2.0 goals scored and 1.42 goals conceded per match

Both teams scored in 15 out of 20 matches for LA Galaxy

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in the database

2 wins for LA Galaxy, 1 win for SJ Earthquakes, 2 draws

The last meeting ended in a 1:1 draw on July 26, 2026

Key Players

Marco Reus leads LA Galaxy with 4 goals and 6 assists

Niko Tsakiris stars for the visitors with 2 goals and 4 assists

Joseph Paintsil scored 4 goals for the home side

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper J. Marcinkowski kept 3 clean sheets for LA Galaxy

Angus Gunn has 5 clean sheets for SJ Earthquakes

Influences

Home advantage for LA Galaxy on grass at Dignity Health Sports Park

LA Galaxy average 1.22 goals scored at home

SJ Earthquakes score an average of 2.0 goals per away match

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