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Major League Soccer

Columbus Crew - CF Montréal

08/19/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Columbus Crew
1.7
Total xG
3.0
CF Montréal
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
CCCM

Columbus Crew

Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.03
Max Arfsten not in squad (4 goals, 4 assists)
Dániel Gazdag on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
77% of goal output missing (only 47% available)

CF Montréal

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.24
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.19
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.00
Victor Loturi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Daniel Ríos not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Columbus Crew: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    CF Montréal with Jalen Neal: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Columbus Crew: 68% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Columbus Crew: 45% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 11)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

27%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • Only 48% of the goal threat is available for Columbus Crew, as Max Arfsten and Dániel Gazdag are missing
  • Columbus Crew averaged 4.2 shots on target in recent matches with a dominant possession of 57%
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 43% home win probability with 1.66 expected goals for the hosts
Risk Factors
  • CF Montréal concedes an average of 2.78 goals per away match
  • CF Montréal's offensive goal production has stalled recently at 0.75 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.39
  • Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
Overview

Columbus Crew hosts CF Montréal

Major League Soccer match on August 19, 2026, 11:30 PM UTC at Lower.com Field

Bottom-half duel between 11th place and 14th place

Form

Columbus Crew shows mixed form WLWDL

Form key: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Recently 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses for the hosts

CF Montréal is winless in 5 matches with a DLLDD form

The visitors recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses recently

Statistics

Columbus Crew averages 1.50 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded at home

CF Montréal averages 1.33 goals scored and 2.78 goals conceded in away games

The visitors failed to score in 7 matches this season

The home stadium averages 2.0 goals per match

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches historically

2 wins for Columbus Crew, 0 wins for CF Montréal, and 2 draws

Goal difference of 6:3 in favor of Columbus Crew

The last match ended in a 1:1 draw on May 14, 2025

Key Players

Taha Habroune has scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists this season

Mohamed Farsi has registered 2 assists so far this season

Chase Adams scored 1 goal this season

Prince Owusu leads CF Montréal with 11 goals and 6 assists

Matty Longstaff contributed 2 goals and 3 assists so far

Brayan Vera scored 1 goal this season

Goalkeepers

Patrick Schulte is in goal for the hosts, having played 19 matches

Columbus Crew kept 3 clean sheets this season

Thomas Gillier guards the goal for the visitors, having made no appearances this season

CF Montréal kept 4 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match is played at Lower.com Field on grass

The stadium averages 2.0 goals per game

The home record shows 12 goals scored and 9 conceded for Columbus Crew

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