Match report →
LA Galaxy – Dallas0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
LA Galaxy
1.55
Total xG
3.07
Dallas
1.52
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | LA Galaxy | Dallas |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Logan Farrington on the bench (6 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Santiago Moreno on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Herman Johansson on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Goal draught for LA Galaxy: The hosts' goal production has stalled recently, averaging 1.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.33
- High offensive probability: The mathematical analysis estimates an 83% probability for over 1.5 goals and a 63% probability of both teams scoring
- Squad changes for Dallas: Logan Farrington, Santiago Moreno, and Herman Johansson are not in the starting lineup despite their season contributions
Risks
- Low shooting accuracy: LA Galaxy averaged only 3.0 shots on target per game in recent matches
- Defensive focus: Dallas averaged only 38.4% possession in recent matches, relying heavily on counter-attacks
- Weakened squad: LA Galaxy must cope without the injured M. Yamane and E. Thommy
All probabilities
Result
LA Galaxy37%
Draw27%
Dallas36%
Double chance
LA Galaxy or draw64%
Dallas or draw63%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Dallas: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- LA Galaxy: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- Dallas: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Dallas with Ramiro: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Gabriel Pec: 3 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 8 games)
Lineups
LA Galaxy 4-3-3 · Dallas 3-1-4-2
LA Galaxy
- 12 J. Marcinkowski
- 26 H. Miller
- 5 J. Glesnes
- 4 M. Yoshida
- 14 J. Nelson
- 22 E. Wynder
- 15 J. Haak
- 8 L. Sanabria Magolé
- 28 J. Paintsil
- 18 M. Reus
- 21 R. Taylor
Dallas
- 40 J. Sirois
- 3 O. Urhoghide
- 32 N. Norris
- 18 S. Moore
- 12 C. Cappis
- 14 H. Johansson
- 55 K. da Silva Ferreira
- 8 P. Delgado Villa
- 77 B. Kamungo
- 23 L. Farrington
- 9 P. Musa
Substitutes
- 7 K. Furuhashi
- 1 N. Mićović
- 3 J. Aude
- 25 C. Garcés Torres
- 16 I. Parente
- 20 C. Rindov
- 76 T.Elgersma
- 45 V. Garcia
- 90 B. Phan
- 5 L. Abubakar
- 11 A. Julio Santos
- 25 S. Ibeagha
- 28 S. Sarver
- 30 M. Collodi
- 21 J. Valiente Cioli
- 27 C. Swann
- 10 S. Moreno
- 33 C. Holstad
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