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Major League Soccer

New York RB - Orlando City

08/01/2026, 11:30 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
New York RB
1.9
Total xG
3.3
Orlando City
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

7%
What influences the xG?
NYROC

New York RB

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.04
Jorge Ruvalcaba not in squad (7 goals, 0 assists)
Adri Mehmeti not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
37% of goal output missing (only 77% available)

Orlando City

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.23
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.23
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.09
MartĂ­n Ojeda not in squad (11 goals, 0 assists)
44% of goal output missing (only 85% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.73
+0.73
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    New York RB with Gustav Berggren: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Orlando City: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    New York RB: 50% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 10)

  • 4
    New York RB: 65% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Orlando City with Eduard Atuesta: 2.5 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

25%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

64%

Under 2.5

36%

Over 3.5

42%

Under 3.5

58%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

65%

No

35%

Key Factors
  • Significant blow in attack: New York RB will be without suspended key player Jorge Ruvalcaba (7 goals)
  • Heavy loss for the visitors: Orlando City is missing top scorer MartĂ­n Ojeda (11 goals this season) due to injury
  • High goal expectation: The model predicts 1.88 home goals and 1.41 away goals, with a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals
Risk Factors
  • Extreme away weakness: Orlando City concedes a worrying average of 3.88 goals per away game
  • Weakened attacks: Both teams must cope without a large portion of their seasonal goal threat
Overview

New York RB (9th place, 22 points) host Orlando City (10th place, 20 points) at Sports Illustrated Stadium

Major League Soccer match on August 1, 2026, 11:30 PM

A tight mid-table clash is expected

Form

New York RB form is WDWLL

Two consecutive losses recently

Orlando City form is WDLWW with two consecutive wins

The visitors show stronger recent form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

New York RB scores an average of 1.53 goals and concedes 2.18 goals

Orlando City averages 1.65 goals scored and 2.59 goals conceded

Extremely vulnerable away defense for Orlando City with 3.88 goals conceded per game

Both teams scored in 12 of New York RB's 17 matches

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in the database

3 wins for New York RB and 2 draws

Last match ended 2-1 for New York RB on February 22, 2026

Orlando City is still winless in head-to-head matches

Key Players

Julian Hall shines with 9 goals and 3 assists this season

Cade Cowell has contributed 2 goals and 4 assists so far

Emil Forsberg has 1 goal and 4 assists

Antoine Griezmann has 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 games for the visitors

Eduard Atuesta assisted 3 goals in his last 5 matches

Justin Ellis has 1 goal and 4 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Ethan Horvath in goal for New York RB has 1 clean sheet this season

Maxime Crépeau has kept 2 clean sheets for Orlando City

Both defensive lines have conceded numerous goals this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Sports Illustrated Stadium

The venue averages 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of the 5 games played at this venue

Home advantage for New York RB with 1.62 goals scored per home game on average

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