Match report →
New York RB – Orlando City3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
New York RB
1.88
Total xG
3.29
Orlando City
1.41
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | New York RB | Orlando City |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.73 | +0.73 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.23 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | −0.09 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Jorge Ruvalcaba not in squad (7 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Adri Mehmeti not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 37% of goal output missing (only 77% available) | ||
| Martín Ojeda not in squad (11 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 44% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Significant blow in attack: New York RB will be without suspended key player Jorge Ruvalcaba (7 goals)
- Heavy loss for the visitors: Orlando City is missing top scorer Martín Ojeda (11 goals this season) due to injury
- High goal expectation: The model predicts 1.88 home goals and 1.41 away goals, with a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals
Risks
- Extreme away weakness: Orlando City concedes a worrying average of 3.88 goals per away game
- Weakened attacks: Both teams must cope without a large portion of their seasonal goal threat
All probabilities
Result
New York RB47%
Draw25%
Orlando City28%
Double chance
New York RB or draw72%
Orlando City or draw53%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
7%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- New York RB with Gustav Berggren: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Orlando City: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- New York RB: 50% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 10)
- New York RB: 65% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Orlando City with Eduard Atuesta: 2.5 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
New York RB 4-3-3 · Orlando City 4-4-2
New York RB
- 34 E. Horvath
- 12 D. Nealis
- 2 J. Che
- 14 J. Bazán Medina
- 56 M. Dos Santos
- 48 R. Donkor
- 4 G. Berggren
- 10 E. Forsberg
- 7 C. Cowell
- 91 M. Jiménez Murillo
- 16 J. Hall
Orlando City
- 71 M. Crépeau
- 24 G. Dorsey
- 4 D. Brekalo
- 6 R. Jansson
- 3 A. Marín Gómez
- 77 I. Angulo Cortés
- 8 B. Ojeda Rodríguez
- 20 E. Atuesta Velasco
- 11 T. Souza de Jesus Carvalho
- 22 J. Ellis
- 7 A. Griezmann
Substitutes
- 3 J. Marshall-Rutty
- 6 R. Voloder
- 77 J. McCarthy
- 26 T. Parker
- 37 M. Sofo
- 33 R. Mitchell
- 39 N. Benedetti
- 17 C. Harper
- 80 N. Worth
- 12 Javier Otero
- 14 T. Spicer
- 16 W. Cartagena Mendoza
- 19 Z. Taifi
- 57 I. da Silva Nogueira
- 5 L. de Aquino
- 23 H. Sarajian
- 65 G. Caraballo Delgado
- 44 B. Rhein Goncalves
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