Match report ā
Colorado Rapids ā SJ Earthquakes1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Colorado Rapids
1.96
Total xG
3.03
SJ Earthquakes
1.06
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Colorado Rapids | SJ Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.73 | +0.73 |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | ā0.38 | |
| Attack strength (1.31x league average) | +0.27 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | ā0.02 | |
| Darren Yapi on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Hamzat Ojediran on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Niko Tsakiris not in squad (3 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Ousseni Bouda on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Reid Roberts not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Jamar Ricketts on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Colorado Rapids' strong home defense (0.67 goals conceded per home game) meets SJ Earthquakes' away attack (1.85 goals scored per away game)
- Form advantage for SJ Earthquakes who are undefeated in five games with 3 wins and 2 draws
- Mathematical model projects a 57% win probability for Colorado Rapids with 1.96 expected goals
Risks
- Colorado Rapids conceded an average of 2.0 goals per match over their last five games
- SJ Earthquakes averaged 5.2 shots on target per match in recent games
- SJ Earthquakes concede an average of 1.44 goals per game this season
All probabilities
Result
Colorado Rapids57%
Draw24%
SJ Earthquakes19%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Double chance
Colorado Rapids or draw81%
SJ Earthquakes or draw43%
No draw76%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Colorado Rapids: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Colorado Rapids: 6 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- SJ Earthquakes: 67% of all goals in the first half (10 of 15, last 12 games)
- SJ Earthquakes: 33% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (5 of 15)
Lineups
Colorado Rapids 4-3-3 Ā· SJ Earthquakes 5-3-2
Colorado Rapids
- 41 N. Defreitas Hansen
- 4 R. Cannon
- 6 R. Holding
- 5 L. Ntambue Kayumba
- 29 M. Navarro ZƔrate
- 12 J. Atencio
- 7 M. Whittaker
- 13 W. Frederick II
- 32 D. Phillip
- 9 S. Abu Farhi
- 10 P. Aaronson
SJ Earthquakes
- 36 E. Edwards Jr.
- 3 P. Marie
- 17 J. Jasinski
- 5 D. Munie
- 4 D. Romney
- 87 V. Costa De Brito
- 23 E. Lƶwen
- 14 R. Vieira Nan
- 34 B. Leroux
- 19 P. Judd
- 11 T. Werner
Substitutes
- 8 H. Ojediran
- 11 I. Sadiq
- 2 K. Rosenberry
- 24 N. Cobb
- 77 D. Yapi
- 99 J. Travis
- 33 K. Thompson
- 93 G. Minoungou
- 31 A. Beaudry
- 2 J. Ricketts
- 6 I. Harkes
- 7 O. Bouda
- 20 N. Fernandez
- 28 B. Kikanovic
- 31 F. Montali
- 21 N. Buck
- 25 M. Floriani
- 9 L. Jovanovic
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