Match report →
Houston Dynamo – DC United1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Houston Dynamo
1.17
Total xG
2.65
DC United
1.47
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Houston Dynamo | DC United |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.49x league average) | −1.32 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.79 | +0.79 |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.59 | |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.54 | |
| Attack strength (1.27x league average) | +0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.11 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Offensive trend: DC United averaged 2.0 goals per game recently with a strong 6.8 shots on target
- Away stability: DC United concede only 1.29 goals per game on the road
- Home defense: Houston Dynamo stand solid at home conceding only 1.00 goal per game
Risks
- Low-scoring venue: Shell Energy Stadium averages only 1.8 goals per match
- Long match break: Both teams had an exceptionally long pause of about 60 days since their last match
- Houston absences: Missing defender A. Cunha Capocasali Junior weakens the squad
All probabilities
Result
Houston Dynamo28%
Draw29%
DC United43%
Double chance
Houston Dynamo or draw57%
DC United or draw72%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- DC United: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- DC United: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Houston Dynamo with Ondrej Lingr: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- DC United: 3 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- Houston Dynamo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Houston Dynamo 4-1-4-1 · DC United 4-4-2
Houston Dynamo
- 31 J. Bond
- 36 F. de Andrade Vieira
- 5 L. Halter
- 34 A. Resch
- 11 L. Ennali
- 6 J. de Lima Junior
- 19 M. Bogusz
- 8 J. McGlynn
- 16 H. Herrera López
- 20 G. Vieira dos Santos
- 23 D. McGuire
DC United
- 1 S. Johnson
- 5 S. Hefti
- 3 L. Bartlett
- 13 S. Nealis
- 6 K. Kurokawa
- 25 J. Hopkins
- 21 A. Dozzell
- 23 B. Servania
- 7 J. Martins Peglow
- 9 T. Baribo
- 11 L. Munteanu
Substitutes
- 9 O. Lingr
- 10 E. Ponce Martínez
- 14 D. Holmes
- 18 D. Samassekou
- 21 F. Negri
- 26 B. Gillingham
- 28 E. Sviatchenko
- 30 A. Bouzat
- 24 I. Aliyu
- 4 M. Peltola
- 8 J. Stroud
- 26 A. Bono
- 27 N. Markovic
- 77 H. Kijima
- 17 J. Murrell
- 22 N. Ordaz
- 32 O. Avilez
- 20 G. Leveille
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