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Major League Soccer

Houston Dynamo - DC United

07/23/2026, 12:30 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Houston Dynamo
1.2
Total xG
2.6
DC United
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
HDDU

Houston Dynamo

Attack weakness (0.49x league average)
-1.32
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.59
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.01
Full strength squad available

DC United

Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.54
Attack strength (1.27x league average)
+0.16
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.11
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.07
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.79
+0.79
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    DC United: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 2
    DC United: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Houston Dynamo with Ondrej Lingr: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    DC United: 3 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)

  • 5
    Houston Dynamo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

28%

Draw

29%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

72%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Offensive trend: DC United averaged 2.0 goals per game recently with a strong 6.8 shots on target
  • Away stability: DC United concede only 1.29 goals per game on the road
  • Home defense: Houston Dynamo stand solid at home conceding only 1.00 goal per game
Risk Factors
  • Low-scoring venue: Shell Energy Stadium averages only 1.8 goals per match
  • Long match break: Both teams had an exceptionally long pause of about 60 days since their last match
  • Houston absences: Missing defender A. Cunha Capocasali Junior weakens the squad
Overview

Houston Dynamo host DC United at Shell Energy Stadium

Major League Soccer match on July 23, 2026, 2:30 AM

Houston in 8th place with 22 points and DC United in 9th place with 18 points

A close mid-table battle is expected

Form

Houston Dynamo in solid form with 3 wins in their last 5 matches (WWLWD)

DC United recorded 1 win and 3 draws with 1 loss (WDLDD)

Both teams finished their last matches with a draw

(Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Houston Dynamo average 1.36 goals scored and 1.64 goals conceded per game

At home their defense is much tighter conceding only 1.00 goal per match

DC United score an average of 1.43 goals away and concede only 1.29 goals

Head-to-Head

Only one direct meeting has taken place in the past two years

DC United won this match 4-1 at home in June 2024

Houston Dynamo seek revenge in this encounter

Key Players

Attacker Guilherme is Houston's top scorer with 8 goals and 4 assists

Jack McGlynn contributes 2 goals and 3 assists in midfield

For DC United Tai Baribo shines upfront with 8 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Jonathan Bond guards Houston's goal with 4 clean sheets this season

Sean Johnson is in goal for DC United and also recorded 4 clean sheets

Influences

The match is played on grass at Shell Energy Stadium

The venue stats show a low-scoring trend with an average of 1.8 goals per game

Over 2.5 goals occurred in only 20% of matches at this stadium

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