Major League Soccer
Philadelphia Union - New York RB
07/22/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.8
1.4
1:1
14%2:1
8%1:2
8%2:0
6%0:2
6%What influences the xG?
Philadelphia Union
New York RB
League
The Lab
- 1New York RB with Gustav Berggren: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 2Philadelphia Union with Japhet Sery Larsen: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2.2 goals/game (4 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
37%
Draw
29%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
63%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Form Gap: Philadelphia Union is winless in their last 5 games, while New York RB won 3 of their last 5 matches
- Tactical Offensive Edge: Philadelphia Union averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to New York RB's 3.8
- Defensive Vulnerability: Philadelphia concedes an average of 2.0 goals per home game, matching New York RB's solid away scoring average of 1.71
Risk Factors
- Away Defensive Weakness: New York RB concedes an average of 2.57 goals per away match
- Low-Scoring Venue: Subaru Park has seen a very low average of only 1.2 goals per game in recent matches
Overview
Philadelphia Union host New York Red Bulls at Subaru Park
Major League Soccer match on July 22, 2026, 11:30 PM
The home side is in 15th place with 7 points, while the visitors sit 5th with 22 points
The mathematical model predicts a close match with a 37% chance for a home win and 35% for an away win
Form
Philadelphia Union's recent form is DLLDL
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
The home team has 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches
New York RB enters the match with a strong LWWDW form
Statistics
Philadelphia Union scores an average of 1.2 goals and concedes 2.0 goals per game
At home, they average 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 goals conceded
New York RB scores an average of 1.71 goals away from home but concedes 2.57
Both sides struggle defensively, each conceding over 2.0 goals per match on average
Head-to-Head
Out of the last 4 head-to-head matches, Philadelphia won 2, New York RB won 1, and 1 ended in a draw
The goal difference is 4:1 in favor of the home team
The last encounter on August 16, 2025, ended in a 1-0 win for New York RB
Philadelphia Union holds the historical upper hand in this matchup
Key Players
Milan Iloski has scored 7 goals this season for Philadelphia Union
Cavan Sullivan contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in midfield for the hosts
Bruno Damiani recorded 1 goal and 1 assist for the home team
Julian Hall leads the visitors with 9 goals and 3 assists
Jorge Ruvalcaba has been clinical for the Red Bulls with 7 goals
Cade Cowell has provided 4 assists and scored 1 goal this season
Goalkeepers
Andre Blake has made 14 appearances for Philadelphia Union with 2 clean sheets
Ethan Horvath has played 15 matches for New York RB, recording 1 clean sheet
Both goalkeepers have similar season ratings of 6.70 and 6.72 respectively
Influences
Matches at Subaru Park average just 1.2 goals per game
Both teams scored in only 40% of the last 5 games at this venue
The match will be played on natural grass
Philadelphia has struggled at home, conceding 6 goals in 3 matches despite home advantage