Match report →
Philadelphia Union – New York RB3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Philadelphia Union
1.41
Total xG
2.77
New York RB
1.36
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Philadelphia Union | New York RB |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.79 | +0.79 |
| Attack weakness (0.62x league average) | −0.65 | |
| Defensive strength (2.3 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | +0.40 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.31 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.26 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 5, 10 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 15, 10 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Ben Bender on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Form Gap: Philadelphia Union is winless in their last 5 games, while New York RB won 3 of their last 5 matches
- Tactical Offensive Edge: Philadelphia Union averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to New York RB's 3.8
- Defensive Vulnerability: Philadelphia concedes an average of 2.0 goals per home game, matching New York RB's solid away scoring average of 1.71
Risks
- Away Defensive Weakness: New York RB concedes an average of 2.57 goals per away match
- Low-Scoring Venue: Subaru Park has seen a very low average of only 1.2 goals per game in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Philadelphia Union37%
Draw29%
New York RB34%
Double chance
Philadelphia Union or draw66%
New York RB or draw63%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
0:2
6%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- New York RB with Gustav Berggren: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Philadelphia Union with Japhet Sery Larsen: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2.2 goals/game (4 of 8 games)
Lineups
Philadelphia Union 4-4-2 · New York RB 4-3-3
Philadelphia Union
- 18 A. Blake
- 39 F. Westfield
- 26 N. Harriel
- 5 J. Sery
- 27 K. Wagner
- 6 C. Sullivan
- 21 D. Jean Jacques
- 4 J. Lukić
- 19 I. Vassilev
- 9 B. Damiani
- 10 M. Iloski
New York RB
- 34 E. Horvath
- 3 J. Marshall-Rutty
- 2 J. Che
- 12 D. Nealis
- 56 M. Dos Santos
- 48 R. Donkor
- 15 A. Mehmeti
- 10 E. Forsberg
- 7 C. Cowell
- 16 J. Hall
- 11 J. Ruvalcaba
Substitutes
- 2 G. Martínez Turner
- 8 J. Bueno Añez
- 11 A. Bedoya
- 23 E. Alladoh
- 28 A. Anello
- 76 A. Rick
- 16 B. Bender
- 33 Q. Sullivan
- 44 N. Pierre
- 4 G. Berggren
- 5 O. Valencia Arauz
- 70 A. Rojas Maroto
- 77 J. McCarthy
- 26 T. Parker
- 37 M. Sofo
- 14 J. Bazán Medina
- 80 N. Worth
- 91 M. Jiménez Murillo
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