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Major League Soccer

Orlando City - Nashville SC

07/25/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Orlando City
1.3
Total xG
2.5
Nashville SC
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
OCNS

Orlando City

Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.92
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.40
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 1, 9 places gap)
-0.13
Martín Ojeda not in squad (11 goals, 0 assists)
Adrián Marín on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Eduard Atuesta on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
44% of goal output missing (only 60% available)

Nashville SC

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.60
Attack weakness (0.63x league average)
-0.39
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.20
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 10, 9 places gap)
+0.05
Cristian Espinoza not in squad (3 goals, 6 assists)
Warren Madrigal not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists)
Ahmed Qasem on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 2.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.80
+0.80
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Nashville SC: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Nashville SC: 75% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Nashville SC with Reed Baker-Whiting: 2.8 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Nashville SC: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Nashville SC: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

30%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact for Orlando: Missing Martín Ojeda, Adrián Marín, and Eduard Atuesta, leaving only 61% of the regular starting lineup strength available
  • Defensive discrepancy: Orlando concedes an average of 2.75 goals per game, whereas league leaders Nashville concede only 0.5 goals per away game
  • Nashville in peak form: Five consecutive wins (WWWWW) highlight their strength, with predictions showing a balanced 35% chance for both home and away wins
Risk Factors
  • Severe fatigue risk: Both teams have only 2 days of rest since their last match
  • Nashville key absences: Despite 92% active goal share, crucial attackers like Cristian Espinoza and Warren Madrigal are out with injuries
Overview

Orlando City host Nashville SC at the Inter&Co Stadium

Major League Soccer match on July 25, 2026, 11:30 PM

League leaders Nashville SC (39 points) visit 10th-placed Orlando City (17 points)

An unequal matchup between the top of the table and the lower half

Form

Orlando City shows mixed form with a record of LWDLW

They recently secured a 4-0 away win against SJ Earthquakes

Nashville SC enters with a perfect run of five consecutive wins (WWWWW)

The leaders recently won 1-0 against CF Montréal

Statistics

Orlando City scores 1.69 goals on average but concedes a worrying 2.75 goals per game

Nashville SC boasts a stellar defense, conceding only 0.69 goals per match on average

Away from home, Nashville is extremely stable, conceding just 0.5 goals per game

Orlando's home matches average 1.75 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded

Head-to-Head

The last five encounters produced three home wins and two away wins

The most recent meeting on March 21, 2026, ended in a clear 5-0 victory for Nashville SC

A total of 22 goals were scored across these five matches

Key Players

Antoine Griezmann shines for Orlando City with an average rating of 8.03

Iván Angulo has contributed one goal and four assists this season

Griffin Dorsey shows rising form with two goals in 13 matches

For Nashville, Sam Surridge stands out with ten goals in ten appearances

Hany Mukhtar is key with six goals and four assists

Bryan Acosta stabilizes the midfield with a rating of 7.04

Goalkeepers

Maxime Crépeau starts in goal for Orlando with a season rating of 6.82, while the team has kept only one clean sheet

Brian Schwake defends Nashville's goal with a strong rating of 7.05, contributing to eight clean sheets

Influences

The match is played on grass at the Inter&Co Stadium

This venue historically sees high-scoring games with an average of 3.75 goals

The historical BTTS rate at this stadium stands at 75%

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