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Major League Soccer

Inter Miami - Portland Timbers

05/17/2026, 10:00 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Inter Miami
2.1
Total xG
3.3
Portland Timbers
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

10%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

3:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
IMPT

Inter Miami

Attack strength (1.22x league average)
+0.38
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.28
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
+0.13
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap)
+0.10
Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.09
Full strength squad available

Portland Timbers

Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap)
-0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.07
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.07
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.8 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.76
+0.76
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Portland Timbers with Diego CharĂĄ: 5.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Inter Miami: 3 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)

  • 3
    Inter Miami: 36% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 22)

  • 4
    Inter Miami with Maximiliano FalcĂłn: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 5.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Inter Miami: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

23%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

64%

Under 2.5

36%

Over 3.5

42%

Under 3.5

58%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

43%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • Inter Miami's offensive strength, demonstrated by an average of 2.67 home goals and 3.0 goals in their last 5 matches
  • Portland's defensive vulnerability away, with an average of 3.0 goals conceded per away game
  • The general expectation of a high-scoring game, based on the pipeline analysis with a 64% probability for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score
Risk Factors
  • The high number of goals conceded by Inter Miami at home (an average of 3.0 per game)
  • The defensive weakness of Portland Timbers in away games, also conceding an average of 3.0 goals
Overview

Inter Miami (2nd place, 25 points) host Portland Timbers (12th place, 14 points) in Major League Soccer

Major League Soccer match on May 17, 2026, 11:00 PM

Inter Miami is in the upper half of the table, while Portland Timbers are in the lower midfield

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 57% probability

Form

Inter Miami's form is WDLWW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) across all competitions

The team has won its last two matches

Inter Miami's last 5 results are 5-3 against Cincinnati, 4-2 against Toronto, 3-4 against Orlando City, 1-1 against New England, and 2-0 against Real Salt Lake

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Portland Timbers' form is LWLWD (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) across all competitions

The last match ended in a draw

Portland Timbers' last 5 results are 2-2 against CF Montréal, 6-0 against Sporting KC, 0-2 against Real Salt Lake, 2-1 against San Diego, and 0-2 against Minnesota United

Statistics

Inter Miami scores an average of 2.38 goals per game and concedes 1.85 goals

At home, Inter Miami scores an average of 2.67 goals and concedes 3.0 goals

Both teams scored in 10 of Inter Miami's matches, and 10 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Portland Timbers scores an average of 1.75 goals per game and concedes 1.92 goals

Away, Portland Timbers scores an average of 1.6 goals and concedes 3.0 goals

Both teams scored in 8 of Portland Timbers' matches, and 8 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Both teams' away defense appears vulnerable, conceding an average of 3.0 goals

Head-to-Head

No previous head-to-head meetings found between Inter Miami and Portland Timbers

Key Players

Inter Miami's key players include Lionel Messi, Rodrigo De Paul, and Luis SuĂĄrez

Lionel Messi (Attacker) scored 12 season goals and 5 assists with an average rating of 8.33, and his form is rising

Rodrigo De Paul (Midfielder) scored 3 season goals and 4 assists with an average rating of 7.72, and his form is rising

Luis SuĂĄrez (Attacker) scored 3 season goals and 1 assist with an average rating of 7.05, and his form is rising

For Portland Timbers, key players are Cole Bassett, Kevin Kelsy, and Kristoffer Velde

Cole Bassett (Midfielder) scored 2 season goals and 2 assists with an average rating of 7.38, and his form is stable

Kevin Kelsy (Attacker) scored 5 season goals and 2 assists with an average rating of 7.01, and his form is rising

Kristoffer Velde (Attacker) scored 4 season goals and 1 assist with an average rating of 7.04, and his form is stable

Goalkeepers

Inter Miami's goalkeeper is Dayne St. Clair

Dayne St. Clair has achieved 0 clean sheets at home

His season average rating is 6.68, while his last 5 games show an average rating of 6.97, indicating rising form

Portland Timbers' goalkeeper is James Pantemis

James Pantemis has achieved 0 clean sheets away

His season average rating is 7.21, while his last 5 games show an average rating of 7.30, indicating stable form

Both teams have not achieved any clean sheets in their respective home/away games

Influences

Inter Miami scores an average of 2.67 goals at home but also concedes 3.0 goals

Portland Timbers scores an average of 1.6 goals away but also concedes 3.0 goals

These values suggest an offensively oriented match with defensive weaknesses on both sides

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