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Major League Soccer

Real Salt Lake - Houston Dynamo

05/14/2026, 01:30 AM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Real Salt Lake
1.6
Total xG
2.7
Houston Dynamo
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
RSLHD

Real Salt Lake

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.37
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.33
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.07
Sergi Solans on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
Diego Luna on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Noel Caliskan on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
55% of goal output missing (only 60% available)

Houston Dynamo

Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.44
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.18
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.04
Guilherme on the bench (6 goals, 4 assists)
Lawrence Ennali on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Mateusz Bogusz on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
61% of goal output missing (only 38% available)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Houston Dynamo with Ondrej Lingr: 6.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Real Salt Lake with Juan Manuel Sanabria: 1.3 goals/90 min. Without: 3.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Real Salt Lake: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Houston Dynamo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Real Salt Lake: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (4 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

28%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Houston Dynamo has only 39% of their usual starting XI's goal threat available, as Guilherme (6G/4A), Lawrence Ennali (3G/2A) and Mateusz Bogusz (2G/1A) are not listed
  • Real Salt Lake is the dominant home team in head-to-head encounters, and the mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 46% probability
  • Real Salt Lake's strong home offense (Avg. 1.86 goals) meets a weak away defense from Houston Dynamo (Avg. 2.17 goals conceded)
Risk Factors
  • Real Salt Lake has to do without some of their offensive power: only 61% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is active, including the absence of Sergi Solans (5G/2A), Diego Luna (4G/1A), and Noel Caliskan (0G/2A)
  • Houston Dynamo has a short recovery period with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Houston Dynamo concedes an average of 2.17 goals per away game
Overview

Real Salt Lake (7th place, 19 points) host Houston Dynamo (8th place, 18 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on May 14, 2026, 3:30 AM. Both teams are in the mid-table and are fighting to connect with the playoff spots

Form

Real Salt Lake shows mixed form with WLLWL (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses) in their last five matches

The home team lost their last game away against Dallas with a score of 1:3

Houston Dynamo presents themselves in better condition with WWLWW (4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss)

Houston Dynamo won their last two games, most recently away with a 4:1 against Los Angeles FC

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Real Salt Lake averages 1.82 goals scored per game and concedes 1.55 goals per game this season

At home, Real Salt Lake is offensively strong with an average of 1.86 goals and defensively stable with 1.00 goals conceded

Houston Dynamo averages 1.55 goals scored per game and concedes 1.73 goals per game

Away from home, Houston Dynamo scores 1.67 goals per game but concedes an average of 2.17 goals per game

In 8 of 11 Real Salt Lake matches, more than 2.5 goals were scored, and both teams scored in 8 matches

In 5 of 11 Houston Dynamo matches, more than 2.5 goals were scored, and both teams scored in 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Real Salt Lake recorded 3 wins and Houston Dynamo 1 win

The goal difference in these matches is balanced at 7:7

Real Salt Lake dominated recent home encounters

Real Salt Lake won the last encounter on July 13, 2025, with a score of 1:0

Key Players

For Real Salt Lake, Morgan Guilavogui is an important attacking player with 1 goal and 3 assists and an average rating of 7.43

Zavier Gozo scored 3 goals and 3 assists this season with an average rating of 7.23

Juan Manuel Sanabria contributed 3 assists and has an average rating of 7.02

For Houston Dynamo, Jack McGlynn stands out with 2 goals and 2 assists and an average rating of 7.50

Héctor Herrera scored 1 goal with an average rating of 6.77

Ibrahim Aliyu scored 1 goal with an average rating of 6.72

Goalkeepers

For Real Salt Lake, Rafael Cabral is in goal, with 1 clean sheet in 11 seasonal appearances and an average rating of 6.88

Jonathan Bond guards the goal for Houston Dynamo, making 11 appearances and achieving 3 clean sheets with an average rating of 6.87

Influences

Real Salt Lake shows a strong home performance with an average of 1.86 home goals scored and only 1.00 goals conceded per home game

Houston Dynamo concedes an average of 2.17 goals per away game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities

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