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Major League Soccer

Orlando City - Charlotte

04/22/2026, 11:30 PM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
Orlando City
1.5
Total xG
2.7
Charlotte
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
OCCHA

Orlando City

Defensive weakness (3.1 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+1.18
Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-0.32
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap)
-0.20
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.05
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.04
Marco Paơalić on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
54% of goal output missing (only 65% available)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 0.8 goals/match)

Charlotte

Attack weakness (0.46x league average)
-0.39
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.34
Rising form (2.8 vs 2.1 season average)
+0.18
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.02
Kerwin Vargas on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 2.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Orlando City with David Brekalo: 1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Orlando City: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Charlotte with Liel Abada: 3.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Charlotte: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Charlotte: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

29%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: A home win for Orlando City is calculated at 41%
  • Form trend: Charlotte is currently scoring more frequently (2.8) than their season average (2.1)
  • Offensive comparison: Charlotte averaged 5.6 shots on target in their last 5 games, while Orlando City only managed 3.4
Risk Factors
  • Orlando City: Only 66% of usual starting XI goal threat available (Marco PaĆĄalić missing)
  • Charlotte concedes an average of 2.5 goals per away game
  • Orlando City with only 4 days rest since last match
  • Charlotte with only 4 days rest since last match
  • Orlando City scores only an average of 0.71 home goals per game
Overview

Orlando City hosts Charlotte in a Major League Soccer match on April 22, 2026, 1:30 AM (CEST)

Orlando City is currently in 15th place with 4 points, while Charlotte sits in 3rd place with 14 points

For Orlando City, the goal is to break their current losing streak and gather crucial points in the relegation battle

Form

Orlando City's form across all competitions is WLLDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The team has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

Their last result was a loss

Charlotte, on the other hand, shows better form with DWWLW

The away team achieved 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 games

Charlotte's last match ended in a win

Statistics

Orlando City averages 0.75 goals scored and 3.13 goals conceded per game this season

At home, they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.14 goals conceded per home game

Charlotte is stronger offensively with an average of 1.88 goals per game and concedes 1.25 goals

Away from home, Charlotte scores 1.5 goals and concedes 2.5 goals per away game

Orlando City has scored in 4 games and failed to score in 4 games

Charlotte has scored in 6 games and failed to score in 2 games

For Orlando City, there were over 2.5 goals in 6 games, and for Charlotte, also in 6 games

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Orlando City won 2, Charlotte won 0, and there were 3 draws

Orlando City scored a total of 8 goals, while Charlotte scored 4 goals

The last encounter was on July 5, 2025, ending in a 2:2 draw

Historically, Orlando City has been more dominant in these fixtures

Key Players

For Orlando City, MartĂ­n Ojeda (2 goals, 0 assists, avg. 7.04 rating), IvĂĄn Angulo (0 goals, 2 assists, avg. 6.70 rating), and Zakaria Taifi (0 goals, 1 assist, avg. 6.56 rating) are key players

MartĂ­n Ojeda shows stable form with 1 goal in the last 5 games

IvĂĄn Angulo contributed 1 assist in the last 5 games and is in stable form

Zakaria Taifi is also in stable form

For Charlotte, Pep Biel (4 goals, 3 assists, avg. 7.27 rating), Wilfried Zaha (2 goals, 2 assists, avg. 7.31 rating), and Idan Toklomati (3 goals, 1 assist, avg. 6.79 rating) are the key figures

Pep Biel shows slightly declining form but has scored 1 goal and 3 assists in the last 5 games

Wilfried Zaha is in rising form with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Idan Toklomati is in stable form with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Orlando City's goalkeeper, Maxime Crépeau, has not recorded a single clean sheet this season

His counterpart for Charlotte, Kristijan Kahlina, has achieved 1 clean sheet this season

Kristijan Kahlina shows a slightly declining form with an average rating of 7.31 in the last 5 games

Influences

Orlando City averages 0.71 goals scored and 1.14 goals conceded at home

Charlotte averages 1.5 goals scored and 2.5 goals conceded away from home

There is no data available for venue history or weather influences

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