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Major League Soccer

Houston Dynamo - Colorado Rapids

05/03/2026, 12:30 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Houston Dynamo
1.4
Total xG
2.8
Colorado Rapids
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
HDCR

Houston Dynamo

Attack weakness (0.55x league average)
-1.21
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.62
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.16
Full strength squad available

Colorado Rapids

Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.76
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
-0.07
Paxten Aaronson on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Wayne Frederick on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Colorado Rapids: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Colorado Rapids with Keegan RosenberryĀ : 7.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Houston Dynamo with Ondrej Lingr: 3.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Houston Dynamo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Houston Dynamo: 65% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

28%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis forecasts a very balanced match with a slight advantage for Colorado (37% away win, 35% home win)
  • Colorado's Offensive Power Meets Defensive Weaknesses: Colorado Rapids shows high offensive production (Avg. 2.2 goals per season) but displays defensive vulnerabilities away from home (Avg. 3.0 goals conceded per away game)
  • Houston's Home Offense and Form: Houston Dynamo scores an average of 1.5 goals at home, however, their recent goal production is declining (0.8 recently vs. 1.3 season average)
Risk Factors
  • Colorado's Away Defensive Weakness: Colorado Rapids concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away game
  • Houston's Form: Houston Dynamo's goal production is declining recently (0.8 goals compared to 1.3 season average)
  • Both Teams To Score in 58% of cases: There is an increased probability that both teams will score, which can affect the predictability of the match
Overview

Houston Dynamo hosts Colorado Rapids in Major League Soccer

The match will take place on May 3, 2026, 2:30 AM

Houston is in 10th place with 12 points

Colorado is in 7th place with 13 points

Only one point separates the two teams in the standings

Form

Houston Dynamo's form across all competitions is LLWWL

The team recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

Houston's recent goal production is stagnant with 0.8 goals recently, while the season average is 1.3 goals

Colorado Rapids shows a form of LWLDL

This equates to 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses from their last 5 games

Colorado Rapids is currently scoring more frequently (Avg. 2.8 goals) than their season average (Avg. 2.4 goals)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Houston Dynamo has scored an average of 1.33 goals per game this season and conceded 2.0 goals per game

In home games, Houston scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 1.5 goals

The team kept 2 clean sheets, with 1 at home

Both teams scored in 4 games, and 4 games ended with over 2.5 goals

Colorado Rapids has scored an average of 2.2 goals and conceded 1.8 goals per game

Away from home, Colorado scored an average of 2.0 goals but conceded an alarming 3.0 goals per away game

Colorado kept 2 clean sheets, with 1 away

For Colorado, both teams scored in 7 games, and 7 games ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches between Houston Dynamo and Colorado Rapids

Houston Dynamo won 2 of these encounters, Colorado Rapids also won 2, and 1 match ended in a draw

Houston scored 9 goals, while Colorado scored 11 goals

The last encounter was on April 12, 2026, with Colorado Rapids winning 6-2 at home against Houston Dynamo

The balance of recent meetings is even

Key Players

For Houston Dynamo, these players stand out

Guilherme, attacker, scored 5 goals and 4 assists in 9 appearances with an average rating of 8.16

Mateusz Bogusz, midfielder, contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in 9 appearances and has an average rating of 7.05

Lawrence Ennali, attacker, has 2 goals in 9 appearances and an average rating of 6.63

For Colorado Rapids, these players are important

Rafael Navarro, attacker, led the offense with 7 goals and 3 assists in 10 appearances with an average rating of 7.50

Darren Yapi, attacker, recorded 3 goals and 2 assists in 10 appearances with an average rating of 6.74

Kosi Thompson, defender, scored 2 goals in 4 appearances and has an average rating of 7.01

Goalkeepers

Houston Dynamo's goalkeeper, Jonathan Bond, kept 2 clean sheets this season

For Colorado Rapids, Zack Steffen is in goal, who also kept 2 clean sheets

Influences

Houston Dynamo scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 1.5 goals in their 4 home games

Colorado Rapids scored an average of 2.0 goals but conceded 3.0 goals in their 4 away games

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