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Major League Soccer

Dallas - Real Salt Lake

05/10/2026, 12:30 AM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Dallas
1.6
Total xG
2.9
Real Salt Lake
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
DALRSL

Dallas

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.24
Declining form (1.2 vs 2 season average)
-0.24
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.16
Full strength squad available

Real Salt Lake

Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.03
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Real Salt Lake: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Real Salt Lake with Griffin Dillon: 5.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.9 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Dallas with Patrickson Delgado: 4.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Dallas: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Dallas: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (4 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

27%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Prediction: The mathematical analysis sees Dallas as a slight favorite with a 45% win probability and 1.65 predicted home goals
  • Offensive strength: Real Salt Lake averaged 8.6 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating a strong offensive output
  • Away defense: Real Salt Lake concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game, showing defensive vulnerability
Risk Factors
  • Limited goal production: Dallas's goal production has recently stalled, with 1.2 goals compared to a season average of 2.0
  • High away goals conceded rate: Real Salt Lake concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game
Overview

Dallas (7th place, 16 points) host Real Salt Lake (6th place, 19 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on May 10, 2026, 1:30 AM. Both teams are in the mid-table, fighting for a better position.

Form

Dallas' form (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) is DDLLW

In their last five games, Dallas recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Dallas won their last match away 2-0 against New York RB

Real Salt Lake's form is WWLLW

Real Salt Lake has 3 wins and 2 losses in their last five games

Real Salt Lake won their last match at home 2-0 against Portland Timbers

Statistics

Dallas scored an average of 1.82 goals per game this season and conceded 1.36 goals

At home, the average is 1.86 goals scored and 1.71 goals conceded

Dallas's goal production has recently stalled, with 1.2 goals compared to a season average of 2.0

Real Salt Lake scores an average of 1.90 goals per game and concedes 1.40 goals

Away from home, the average is 2.00 goals scored and 2.33 goals conceded

Real Salt Lake consistently scores around 2.0 goals per game

Head-to-Head

The 4 previous head-to-head matches show an even record

Both teams won 1 game each, while 2 matches ended in a draw

The goal difference is also balanced at 7:7

The last encounter on May 11, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

For Dallas, Petar Musa (10 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 7.61), Osaze Urhoghide (1 goal, 1 assist, Avg. 7.19), and Nolan Norris (1 goal, 0 assists, Avg. 7.05) are key players

Petar Musa recorded 4 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games with an Avg. rating of 7.38

Nolan Norris scored 1 goal in the last 5 games with an Avg. rating of 7.15

For Real Salt Lake, Diego Luna (3 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 7.61), Zavier Gozo (3 goals, 3 assists, Avg. 7.29), and Sergi Solans (5 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 7.04) are crucial

Diego Luna showed rising form in the last 5 games with 3 goals and 1 assist (Avg. 7.91)

Zavier Gozo scored 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games with rising form (Avg. 7.60)

Goalkeepers

Dallas' goalkeeper, Michael Collodi, has an Avg. rating of 6.85 in 11 appearances

Dallas has kept 3 clean sheets so far

Real Salt Lake's goalkeeper, Rafael Cabral, has an Avg. rating of 6.93 in 10 appearances

Real Salt Lake has kept 1 clean sheet so far

Influences

Dallas shows a solid home offense with an average of 1.86 home goals scored per game

Real Salt Lake scores an average of 2.00 goals per away game, but also concedes 2.33 goals

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