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Minnesota United – SJ Earthquakes3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Minnesota United
2.13
Total xG
3.40
SJ Earthquakes
1.26
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Minnesota United | SJ Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.76 | +0.76 |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.29 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 3, 9 places gap) | −0.21 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.17 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 12, 9 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Beau Leroux not in squad (4 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Jack Jasinski not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Dave Romney not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Minnesota United recorded 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, SJ Earthquakes 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss
- Tactics: Minnesota United averaged 5.8 shots on target per match in their last 5 games, SJ Earthquakes 3.6 per match
- Head-to-head: Minnesota United won all 5 previous meetings against SJ Earthquakes
Risks
- Table: SJ Earthquakes sit 3rd in the league with 52 points, Minnesota United 12th with 41 points
- Home/Away: SJ Earthquakes scored 1.62 goals per match away in the league, Minnesota United 1.38 at home
All probabilities
Result
Minnesota United56%
Draw23%
SJ Earthquakes21%
Double chance
Minnesota United or draw79%
SJ Earthquakes or draw44%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.13 : 1.26, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
10%
2:0
8%
3:1
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Minnesota United: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Minnesota United: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- SJ Earthquakes: 7 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Minnesota United: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)
- SJ Earthquakes: 35% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (6 of 17)
- Minnesota United: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (10 points lost)
Lineups
Minnesota United 4-4-2 · SJ Earthquakes 4-2-3-1
Minnesota United
- 12 D. Callender
- 52 C. Valerius
- 28 J. Díaz Beleño
- 23 M. Duggan
- 13 A. Markanich
- 8 T. Chancalay
- 25 N. Triantis
- 30 O. Géne
- 18 M. Gonzalez
- 26 J. Pereyra
- 9 K. Yeboah
SJ Earthquakes
- 1 A. Gunn
- 28 B. Kikanovic
- 5 D. Munie
- 18 R. Roberts
- 2 J. Ricketts
- 14 R. Vieira Nan
- 23 E. Löwen
- 7 O. Bouda
- 10 N. Tsakiris
- 11 T. Werner
- 19 P. Judd
Substitutes
- 11 M. Malone
- 16 A. Jackson
- 1 A. Smir
- 3 K. Duncan
- 6 P. Stroud
- 15 M. Boxall
- 21 B. Hlongwane
- 67 C. Harvey Cesneros
- 22 M. Caldeira
- 3 P. Marie
- 4 D. Romney
- 6 I. Harkes
- 20 N. Fernandez
- 34 B. Leroux
- 36 E. Edwards Jr.
- 87 V. Costa De Brito
- 17 J. Jasinski
- 9 L. Jovanovic
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