Major League Soccer
Chicago Fire - Sporting KC
04/26/2026, 12:30 AM
Expected Goals
2.3
3.1
0.8
2:0
12%3:0
10%2:1
9%1:1
9%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
Chicago Fire
Sporting KC
League
The Lab
- 1Chicago Fire: first goal in 7 of 7 games (100%)
- 2Sporting KC: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 3Chicago Fire with Jonathan Dean: 3.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 4Sporting KC with Ethan Bartlow: 1.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
72%
Draw
19%
Away Win
9%
Goals
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
60%
Under 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
37%
Under 3.5
63%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
91%
Away or Draw
28%
No Draw
81%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- Mathematical Analysis: The pipeline prediction indicates a home win for Chicago Fire with 72% probability
- Strong Home Advantage and Form Difference: Chicago Fire demonstrates a strong home performance and better overall recent form (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) compared to Sporting KC's struggles, especially away (1 win, 4 losses, 3.33 goals conceded per away game)
- Squad Limitation Chicago Fire: Chicago Fire's starting lineup is at only 74% of its usual strength, with Jonathan Bamba (2 goals, 2 assists) and Robin Lod (1 goal, 1 assist) among the missing key players
Risk Factors
- Sporting KC concedes an average of 3.33 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
- Sporting KC averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games (avgShotsOnTarget)
Overview
Chicago Fire (4th place, 14 points) host Sporting KC (15th place, 4 points) in Major League Soccer on April 26, 2026, 12:30 AM
Chicago Fire aim to maintain their strong position in the upper half of the table
Sporting KC are struggling at the bottom and desperately need points
Form
The home team's form (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) is LWWWD
Chicago Fire achieved 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five matches
The away team Sporting KC shows a form of WLLLL
Sporting KC recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 4 losses in their last five matches
Chicago Fire displays a more stable form trend with a recent draw
Sporting KC is in a poor run of form with four consecutive losses
Statistics
Chicago Fire scores an average of 1.5 goals per game and concedes an average of 1 goal per game
The team kept 4 clean sheets
At home, Chicago Fire scores an average of 1.5 goals and concedes only 0.5 goals per home game
Sporting KC scores an average of 0.88 goals per game and concedes an average of 2.5 goals per game
The team has not kept any clean sheets
Away from home, Sporting KC scores an average of 1 goal and concedes an alarming 3.33 goals per away game
Head-to-Head
The provided dataset does not list any previous head-to-head meetings between these two teams
Key Players
For Chicago Fire, Hugo Cuypers with 6 goals and Philip Zinckernagel with 2 goals and 1 assist are important offensive players
Maren Haile-Selassie contributed 1 goal
Hugo Cuypers scored 5 goals in the last 5 games and shows stable form
Philip Zinckernagel scored 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, his form is rising
For Sporting KC, Dejan Joveljić is the top scorer of the season with 4 goals and 1 assist
Lasse Berg Johnsen scored 1 goal
Dejan Joveljić scored 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games with stable form
Manu García provided 1 assist in the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Chicago Fire's goalkeeper, Chris Brady, played 8 games and recorded 4 clean sheets
His average rating in the last 3 games is 7.51, with rising form
John Pulskamp, Sporting KC's goalkeeper, played 8 matches but failed to keep any clean sheets
His average rating in the last 5 games is 6.26, with declining form
Influences
Chicago Fire benefits from a strong home advantage, with 6 goals scored and only 2 goals conceded in home games
Sporting KC has already conceded 10 goals in 3 away games, indicating a significant away weakness