Match report →
Sporting KC – Real Salt Lake1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Sporting KC
1.47
Total xG
3.19
Real Salt Lake
1.72
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sporting KC | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.77 | +0.77 |
| Defensive weakness (2.5 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | +0.62 | |
| Attack weakness (0.63x league average) | −0.43 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.18 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Justin Reynolds not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Lasse Berg Johnsen not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Aiden Hezarkhani on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Real Salt Lake ranks 11th in the league with 33 points from 29 matches, Sporting KC is 15th with 22 points
- Defense: Sporting KC concedes 2.48 goals per match in the league this season, Real Salt Lake scores 1.45 goals per match
- Head-to-head: Real Salt Lake won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Sporting KC, with 1 draw
Risks
- Away: Real Salt Lake scored 1.0 goal per match away in the league this season, Sporting KC scored 1.5 per match at home
- Match interval: Real Salt Lake with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Sporting KC32%
Draw26%
Real Salt Lake42%
Double chance
Sporting KC or draw58%
Real Salt Lake or draw68%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
6%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sporting KC with Taylor Calheira starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (12/8 games, last 29)
- Sporting KC: 65% of all goals in the first half (11 of 17, last 12 games)
- Sporting KC: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (9 points lost)
- Real Salt Lake: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Real Salt Lake: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Sporting KC 4-4-2 · Real Salt Lake 5-4-1
Sporting KC
- 30 S. Cleveland
- 16 J. Bartlett
- 15 J. Miller
- 28 W. Meyer
- 18 E. Karic
- 11 A. Inácio da Silva
- 20 K. Agyabeng
- 22 Z. Bassong
- 14 C. Harris
- 19 T. Calheira
- 17 S. Afrifa
Real Salt Lake
- 1 R. Cabral Barbosa
- 11 D. Marczuk
- 44 L. De Fougerolles
- 26 P. Quinton
- 3 K. Henry
- 8 J. Sanabria Magole
- 12 S. Lobzhanidze
- 6 S. Spierings
- 92 N. Caliskan
- 9 M. Guilavogui
- 22 S. Solans Ormo
Substitutes
- 24 R. Ramos Jr.
- 29 S. Garfield-Reid
- 1 J. Pulskamp
- 2 I. James
- 8 J. Davis
- 23 E. Bartlow
- 93 M. Suleymanov
- 99 J. Reid
- 7 O. Capemba
- 23 C. Booth
- 25 C. Guske
- 2 D. Yedlin
- 19 A. Piol
- 29 S. Junqua
- 31 M. Stajduhar
- 39 A. Hezarkhani
- 98 A. Katranis
- 28 D. Žagar
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